Peak inflation is certainly close but signs are slow to appear. The loss of household purchasing power is affecting confidence and GDP growth. Recession risks are no longer to be ignored. Downward revisions of the outlook.

Key points

• Sharp downward revision of global growth
• Recession risks are increasing in the US
• Europe is experiencing severe turbulence
• Switzerland seems to be weathering the heawinds better
• Negative growth in the UK
• Asian activity picks after China’s confinements
• Inflation affects household purchasing power

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