Category: Investment flash

10 Jul

Superior opportunities for USD bonds

Monthly inflation for May proved better than expected, rising by just +0.006%. This is now the 3rd consecutive monthly decline in the level of inflation, which is now clearly below the data that had worried the markets in February (+0.4%). The May figure thus sees inflation at its lowest (...) Longer maturities in investment grade [...]
03 Jul

Swiss equities to catch up in the 2nd half of 2024

Following the SNB's second key rate cut in June, we expect it to cut rates again in September, from 1.25% to 1%, in view of inflation trends well below its 2% target. The SNB is aiming for a neutral, non-expansionary monetary policy, which should be characterized by real interest rates of (...) More favorable conditions [...]
26 Jun

Ten-year interest rate target reached for confederation

The Swiss National Bank did not initially react to the rise in inflation following the Covid crisis, which strengthened in 2021 and 2022, peaking in August at 3.2% (CPI all items). Inflation had already started to trend downwards, as the SNB raised rates for the first time from -0.75% to (...) Inflation already expected to [...]
19 Jun

The french political crisis creates opportunities

Inflation in the eurozone is no longer falling, and is stabilizing slightly above 2%, as indicated by the latest eurozone CPI published today. Services, housing and energy have returned to reasonable levels, and no longer seem to represent an immediate risk of slippage. As a result, the ECB was able to (...) Equities to benefit [...]
13 Jun

Benefit from high volatility in the energy segment

Over the past few weeks, the economic slowdown scenario has gradually gained strength, with an already clear impact on oil prices. As negative surprises intensified in the United States, crude oil prices slid from $86 a barrel to $73 in just nine weeks. This -15% correction in the (...) Attractive opportunities on oil-related BRC Discover [...]
05 Jun

Precious metals pause before rising again

Since February 21, when we suggested a probable rise in silver towards $30 an ounce, prices have risen by +40%, outperforming gold (+20%) over the same period. The predicted catch-up thus occurred, adjusting the silver/gold price ratio from 91.5 to 76. This 17% decline in the ratio puts it back close to its ten-year average [...]
29 May

Industrial metals continue their upward trend

Since our change to a more favorable outlook for the industrial metals segment at the end of March, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals index has jumped +25%. Today, as China appears to be stepping up its efforts to support its real estate market, investor sentiment is improving and contributing to (...) Positive impact of China's industrial [...]
22 May

Attractive discount for european securitized real estate

Securitized real estate in Europe is not yet benefiting from falling inflation and the potential change in ECB monetary policy, which may well have already taken place at the next ECB meeting in June. Since the collapse of real estate stocks in 2022, which saw the Epra Nareit Dev Europe index lose 50%, prices have [...]
16 May

And if a US recession was once again on the cards?

Over the past few quarters, we have witnessed several changes in economic scenarios, which have greatly increased bond market volatility. After fearing further rate hikes up to October 2023, the last quarter saw the opposite extreme scenario, with optimism betting on (...) A new environment conducive to lenghtening durations Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
08 May

American economic situation weakens crude prices

Prior to last week's sharp decline, WTI crude prices were still trading above $86 a barrel, a level similar to that seen prior to October 7, 2023. The heightened geopolitical risks associated with Israel's intervention in the Gaza Strip had not immediately caused major uncertainty in (...) Bullish recovery likely in 2nd half Discover our [...]