Category: Investment flash

11 Feb

Positive outlook for Swiss secondary stocks

The domestic context of low interest rates, inflation under control, a declining exchange rate at last, and expected earnings growth of +19%, is generally favorable to a rise in Swiss small caps in 2025. They will benefit from this environment to a greater extent than in 2024, not least because of the change in sentiment [...]
06 Feb

A new serious dilemma for the Fed

Whether or not there will be a tariff war in 2025 is undoubtedly premature, but we are rapidly moving towards a first round of tough confrontation. We'll have to wait and see whether (...) Tariff hikes threaten GDP more than CPI Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss [...]
27 Jan

New opportunity for Chinese equities

Chinese equities have been under pressure for several months due to fears and threats to Chinese exports from a massive tariff hike forcefully announced by D. Trump. The Shenzen index slipped a (...) Chinese government and D. Trump offer new perspectives Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss [...]
27 Jan

Beware of the extreme expectations on the dollar

After declining by -4.8% in Q3, the dollar index rose by +9.1% on January 14, 2025, just over three months later. Anticipation of Trump's presidential victory was one of the main factors behind this rise, which was largely fuelled by (...) Momentum likely to be lost after Trump's inauguration Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
27 Jan

Oil market may soon be out of balance

The analyst consensus forecasts a crude oil supply that will be significantly in excess of world demand in 2025. For our part, we believe that analysts are underestimating crude demand and overestimating supply. The reduction in inventories in 2024 points to (...) Positive backdrop for oil prices and oil stocks Discover our Investment Flash down [...]
27 Jan

Trump’s agenda worries and disturpts the markets

The last quarter of 2024 was marked by the US elections and by major changes in the perception of political and economic risks that extended beyond the US alone. Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 triggered (...) Risks of imported inflation, rate increases, threats to growth, return of uncertainty to start [...]
09 Jan

Inflationary fears are excessive in the United States

While the recent small rebound in inflation and solid growth in Q3 may have been partial factors in adjusting balanced rate levels, it seems to us that it was fears of the inflationary effects of Trump's program, difficulties in (...) Towards a new downward movement in the yield curve Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
18 Dec

A new trend for the Swiss franc?

As we had expected, on December 12, the SNB cut its key interest rates by 50 bps to 0.5%, surprising most economists by its magnitude. In our view, the SNB needed to surprise the consensus with (...) The SNB creates the conditions for further weakening of the franc Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
12 Dec

China is ready to boost consumption seriously

China announces a stronger stimulus plan in 2025 to counter the potential effects of increased tariffs by the US administration. China is preparing to fight back against increased US trade sanctions by adopting a much more flexible monetary policy. The Politburo has pledged to , (...) Positive prospects for Chinese assets and commodities Discover our [...]
04 Dec

Forecasted rate reversal becomes reality

Just 30 days ago, when the outcome of the US presidential election was announced, we pointed out the extreme level of anticipation that had pushed 10-year US Treasury yields to 4.5%, stressing that this rise seemed to us largely unjustified by economic fundamentals. Today, (...) US Treasury rate decline spread to other capital markets Discover [...]