Category: Uncategorized

20 Sep

A stronger euro will bolster GDP growth in Switzerland

Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2. The SECO and the SNB revise their growth forecasts downward. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an upturn is enhanced by the appreciation of the euro. Key points Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2 A stronger euro promises further GDP growth Final demand bolsters GDP growth The trade balance is not [...]
31 Aug

The need for and limitations of hedging currency risks

The Euro has risen +7%, hitting our medium-term target of 1.15, and recovering 75% of 2015’s fall. The cost of hedging US dollar positions has now hit 2.2%/year. Key points The Euro has risen +7%, achieving our medium-term target of 1.15 The Swiss franc has once again lost 75% of the appreciation caused by dropping [...]
15 Aug

Flash – Alternative energy – Biofuels

Biofuels: Increase in crude oil prices and pick-up in exports to benefit US producers Key points Equities from the biofuel sector have risen +13.10% since the beginning of the year, against +12.94% for the MSCI World TR Index and -9.15% for energy the energy sector (MSCI World Energy TR) In H2, positive prospects for crude [...]
27 Jul

The economic environment remains favourable for real estate

Swiss and International listed real estate significantly increased in 2017. Demand benefits from the acceleration of global growth and from mostly negative real interest rates. Key points Global listed real estate increases by +9.53% since the beginning of the year Negative real rates and the acceleration of global growth are positive factors in 2017 Overweight [...]
21 Jul

Commodities: Oil likely to increase further to US $55

Crude oil price trend reversal likely in the second half of the year. Rise in demand propped up by China and India. Precious and industrial metals to rise in the near future. Key points A rise in US production along with economic disappointments have weighed heavily on crude oil prices Trend reversal likely in the [...]
13 Jul

The US dollar erases its post-election rise: -5.3% YTD

Broken promises sent the dollar down. The euro benefits from strengthening fundamentals. The yen will not appreciate without inflation. Widening of the CHF-EUR spread. Key points The US dollar was hit by negative economic surprises and broken promises from President Trump on Investment and Fiscal policy The « trade-weighted » USD is down -5.3% since [...]
10 Jul

Conditions for a further rise in long-term rates

The Fed sticks to monetary normalisation. ECB’s economic projections are encouraging. Renewed inflation in the UK. Risks of deflation have decreased in Japan. Key points Heading for a rise in long-term rates in the United States However, the trend in the US must take better root The ECB is preparing a gentle approach to monetary [...]
30 Jun

Flash – Alternative Energy – Carbon risks

Factoring in carbon risks, now’s the time! Key points Once again, 2016 set new records in terms of temperature anomalies: +1°C compared to the 1951-1980 average Let us recall the COP 21 goals: to keep the global temperature rise ‘well below +2°C’ and ‘to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase to +1.5°C’ An increasing [...]
27 Jun

US economy has been disappointing, but growth should accelerate

Economic forecasts adjusted. Modest inflation. Long-term rates recovery. The Fed is sticking to its plan. Consumers remain confident. The S&P 500 is too highly dependent on GAFAs. Key points Lower GDP growth (+1.4%) in Q1 2nd quarter should be better (+3.1%) Negative economic surprises Leading indicators are sowing doubt The labour market is tense Donald [...]
20 Jun

The economic trend in the Eurozone strengthens

GDP growth accelerates to +1.9%. Franco-German couple rekindled. Fall in political uncertainty. Clear increase in company profits. Consensus is optimistic. Key points The Eurozone is still able to produce surprises, with a stronger than forecast economic trend Better growth prospects for the Eurozone in 2017 Reforms in France versus fiscal expansion in Germany? Real terms [...]