Category: Weekly Analysis

Possible recession in the 4th quarter. Rebound in inflation linked to the fall in the currency. Contraction in real household income. Monetary policy still expansionary. Yen's decline falters. Less positive conditions for the Nikkei. Key points A much more dramatic 3rd quarter than expected Possible recession at the end of the year in Japan Significant [...]

Temporary halt to energy transition. Drastic profit revisions. Excessive price corrections. Impact of rising interest rates already factored in. Medium-term outlook underestimated. Attractive valuations for 2024. Key points The energy transition is temporarily threatened by inflation, rising interest rates and some changes in political direction Historic but volatile investment opportunities Alternative energies more sensitive to [...]

Rising production costs. Decline in mining production and recycling supply. Falling interest rates and dollar boost gold prices. Renewed demand for bullion and coins. Return of ETF fund flows. Key points Gold's uptrend set to resume soon Towards a probable imbalance in the gold market Sharp rise in production costs Mine production expected to decline [...]

Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation falls in services. Long-lasting Fed pause. Downward adjustments to yield curves. Weak dollar. Positive outlook for bonds and equities. Key points Economic growth may be slowing more than it seems Slowdown looms for year-end Leading indicators suggest a soft landing Job market still highly uncertain The Federal Reserve will [...]

Recession likely in 2nd half. Leading indicators fall. Household confidence erodes. Inflation finally falls. End of rate hike cycle. Real estate consolidates. Attractive valuation of equities. Key points Resurgence of risks to the British economy Recession in the 2nd half Further worrying declines in leading indicators Significant downturns in the job market Household confidence and [...]

Risks of recession loom large. Inflation falling too slowly. Key rates towards 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities. Key points Eurozone economy avoids recession with +0.1% growth in Q2 Further stagnation in quarterly GDP in Q3 and Q4 Leading indicators point to recession Confidence [...]

Surprising export-led GDP growth. Inflation still in decline. Reduced trade deficit. Expansive monetary policy. Yen's decline falters. Attractive profits for Nikkei companies. Key points Japanese economy surprises with +1.2% growth in Q2 and positive outlook once again Positive trend for the 2nd half Leading indicators still very uncertain Fall in real household income External account [...]

GDP growth slowed. Inflation stabilizes below 2%. End of key rate hike cycle imminent. Potential weakness of the Swiss franc. Stabilization of yields. Bullish recovery for equities. Key points Swiss economy slows sharply in Q2, with seasonally adjusted real GDP stagnating Private consumption and service exports on the rise Leading indicators still not very encouraging [...]

Gradual reduction in uncertainty. Positive impact of falling inflation and the end of the rate-tightening cycle. Attractive valuations of listed real estate indices in Europe and the UK. Relative yields and agios also attractive in Switzerland. Key points Risks discounted, current prices represent real investment opportunities A particularly favorable price/net asset ratio for European real [...]

SMART BRC+ Yield enhanement : a BBGI concept focused on the use of BRCs Key points A brief overview and classification of structured products? Institutional and privae investors increasingly conviced The 3 main forms of structured products Demystifying supposed risks Flexible instruments for all types of markets How to assess their effeciveness? SMAR BRC+ Yield [...]