Category: Weekly Analysis

Economic downturn in Q2. Stagflation remains the base case. Growing concerns about the services sector. Consumers are worried. Negative surprises on the jobs front. Fed on hold. Strong demand for the dollar. Attractive bond yields. Key points Economic resilience will fade in Q2 The stagflation anticipated for Q2 is materializing The trend in services PMIs [...]

GDP contraction? Recession likely in Q2. Leading indicators are down. Households remain concerned. Price indices are rising. The ECB is taking a tougher stance. Mixed outlook for the euro. Stocks likely to consolidate over the summer. Key points Eurozone GDP contracted by –0.2% in Q1 Growing risks of a technical recession as early as Q2 [...]

The Swiss economy holds up in Q1. Weak outlook for Q2 and Q3. Sluggish consumption. Inflation contained for now. SNB on hold. A "game changer" for the franc. Rising volatility in listed real estate. Key points GDP growth (+0.4%) despite sluggish consumption Weaker but still positive outlook for Q2 (+0.2%) A slowdown set to extend [...]

GDP overestimated in Q1. Negative growth likely in Q2. Services sector slumps. Massive blow to employment in May. Consumer confidence at an all-time low. Rise in producer prices (+7.7%). Opportunities in real estate. Be cautious with stocks. Key points The ONS is likely overestimating growth in Q1 2026 Negative growth (-0.2%) expected for Q2 Alarming [...]

Likely economic slowdown in Q2 and Q3. Consumer confidence subdued. Return of inflation. BoJ pivot anticipated. Rate market tensions. Easing pressure on the yen. Nikkei consolidation. Key points Strengthening economic momentum in Q1 An uncertain Q2 caught between energy shock and wage surge Mixed indicators at the heart of Q2 and Q3 tensions Household confidence [...]

There is now a very high probability of an El Niño occurrence in 2026. Sugar, coffee, and rice are more vulnerable to climate disruptions. The agricultural commodities market is already weakened by the geopolitical situation. Who will be the indirect beneficiaries? Key points Understanding El Niño El Niño’s historical impact on agricultural commodities Rice, sugar, [...]

The oil shock threatens economic growth. Stagflation is the most likely scenario. Decline in consumption and investment. Rise in key interest rates. Negative outlook for bonds and stocks. The dollar is in demand. Key points Sharp slowdown in Q4 weighed down by the shutdown The oil shock already points to stagflation in Q1 Oil shock [...]

GDP growth at zero in the first half? Stagflation risks are back in full force. Household confidence is plummeting. New inflationary threats. Risk of three rate hikes in 2026. A weak euro. The rate shock is weighing on all financial assets. Key points Q4 trend strongly called into question in Q1 Will the GDP forecast [...]

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting the fertilizer market. 30% of global demand is blocked. The impact is greater than that on the energy sector. This is having a direct effect on fertilizer prices and agricultural commodity prices. Inflation is set to rise sharply in the second half of the year. Key [...]

GDP is under serious threat from the oil shock. A recession is possible in the first half of the year. Inflation is set to rise above 4%. Yields are surging. Financing costs are rising. Risks are mounting for the UK real estate and equity markets. Key points The UK confirms near-stagnation in Q4 A difficult [...]