Category: Weekly Analysis

The oil shock threatens economic growth. Stagflation is the most likely scenario. Decline in consumption and investment. Rise in key interest rates. Negative outlook for bonds and stocks. The dollar is in demand. Key points Sharp slowdown in Q4 weighed down by the shutdown The oil shock already points to stagflation in Q1 Oil shock [...]

GDP growth at zero in the first half? Stagflation risks are back in full force. Household confidence is plummeting. New inflationary threats. Risk of three rate hikes in 2026. A weak euro. The rate shock is weighing on all financial assets. Key points Q4 trend strongly called into question in Q1 Will the GDP forecast [...]

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting the fertilizer market. 30% of global demand is blocked. The impact is greater than that on the energy sector. This is having a direct effect on fertilizer prices and agricultural commodity prices. Inflation is set to rise sharply in the second half of the year. Key [...]

GDP is under serious threat from the oil shock. A recession is possible in the first half of the year. Inflation is set to rise above 4%. Yields are surging. Financing costs are rising. Risks are mounting for the UK real estate and equity markets. Key points The UK confirms near-stagnation in Q4 A difficult [...]

The Swiss economy avoids technical recession. Weak outlook for H1 2026. Reversal of inflation trend. Change in the nature of risks for the SNB. Geopolitics supports the franc. Increased risks for Swiss assets. Key points Swiss economy avoids technical recession in Q4 The war in the Middle East also threatens Switzerland Headwinds for Swiss economy [...]

Precarious balance for the economy in 2025. Conflict in the Middle East causes crude oil prices to skyrocket. Likely decline in consumer confidence. Industrial production under pressure. The BOJ faces stagflation. Key points A difficult recovery in Q4 Q1 under pressure between resilience and external shocks Positive leading indicators before the energy crisis Likely further [...]

GDP slows in Q3. Soft landing in Q4 and Q1 2026 highly uncertain. High underemployment at 8.7%. Key interest rates close to neutral. Risks of inflation rebound in Q1. Reduced outlook for bonds. Consolidation of equity markets. Key points Growth slows in Q3 after Q2 euphoria Soft landing in Q4 for US GDP Leading indicators [...]

GDP growth in Q4. Sluggish economic recovery in 2026. Household confidence too cautious. Inflation under control. ECB on hold for the foreseeable future. Complex situation for the euro. Bond market without clear trend. Moderate outlook for equities. Key points Resilience in Q3 points to a positive Q4 as well Positive but fragile growth in 2026 [...]

GDP down in Q3. Q4 potentially negative. Confidence eroding.New risks for employment. Inflation holding steady. Rate cuts on the horizon. Bond markets attractive. Outlook for the FTSE100 reduced. Key points The UK misses out on hoped-for rebound in Q3 Difficult end to the year for UK growth Slowdown in services clouds the outlook End of [...]

GDP falls in Q3. Timid recovery possible in Q4. Consumers remain concerned. The 3% rebound in the CPI is worrying. The stagflation scenario is taking hold. The BoJ will favor the status quo. Rates are tightening. The yen remains weak. Nikkei in danger. Key points Exports stall, GDP falls by -0.4% in Q3 Possible GDP [...]