Category: Weekly Analysis

The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and ends free trade. An absurd new paradigm, reminiscent of the origins of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The worst may not be certain, but America will have a hard time regaining credibility. Key points The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and [...]

Economic momentum halted. Trump and DOGE break confidence. Complicated dilemma for the Fed. 15% tariffs and +1.5% inflation. Fixed-income markets benefit from recession risks. Dollar and equities under pressure. Key points U.S. economy slows down since Trump Growth halted in the first half of 2025 Leading indicators point to a slowdown DOGE's action affects jobs [...]

Germany creates a new situation. Economic recovery in H2. PMI up. Inflation under control. ECB accommodating. Outlook moderate outlook for bonds. Positive backdrop for the euro, real estate and equities Key points Eurozone momentum weakens again Q1 2025 will remain weak before the next upturn Leading indicators are already strengthening Household confidence set to improve [...]

Fragile economic climate. Persistent uncertainty. Risk of stagflation. Inflation not yet under control. BoE will have to cut rates. High risk premium for bonds. Securitized real estate on hold. FTSE 100 target achieved. Key points Economic weakness continues into 2025 Uncertainty does not support the British economy Leading indicators confirm GDP stagnation Labour market still [...]

Exports support GDP. Q1 2025 probably solid. Positive momentum in services. Further rate hike in March. Potential appreciation of yen to 140 against USD. Increasing risks for the Nikkei. Ten-year yield at 1.5%. Key points Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid Leading indicators supported by [...]

Weak Q1 GDP growth. Services PMI still solid. Near-deflationary situation on a monthly basis for the past six months. Zero key rates in 2025? Bond opportunities to be avoided. Positive outlook for small caps. Key points Swiss growth slows despite resilient household consumption Q1 GDP growth limited to +0.2% Swiss exports slide at the start [...]

A market close to imbalance this winter. Reduction in Russian production. New American sanctions change the situation. Oil prices higher than expected. Positive outlook for prices and the global oil sector. Key points World oil market: oversupply? Oil demand underestimated for 2025 The oil market may already be out of balance this winter Russian production [...]

Declining confidence threatens the economy. Inflationary excessive fears. Fed too cautious again. End of QT imminent. Opportunities in bond markets. Equities continue to rise. Dollar still in demand. Key points US economy still solid in Q4? Where is the US economy heading in the short run? Leading indicators remain hesitant The job market shows no [...]

Resilient domestic demand. Potentially stronger Q4. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation stabilizing near +2%. ECB cuts 100 bps by 2025. Difficult situation for the euro. Opportunities in financial markets. Key points Economy holds up thanks to domestic demand Q4 may prove stronger than expected Leading indicators strengthen without conviction Household confidence remains hesitant Inflation stabilizes [...]

Moderate economic growth in 2025. Inflation almost under control. Accommodating monetary policy. Sharp downward adjustment in long-term interest rates. Positive outlook for bonds, listed real estate and equities. Key points Sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 A still relatively weak end to the year Further declines in manufacturing and services PMIs Slight easing of tensions in the [...]