Category: Weekly Analysis

12 Jul

Fed pivot to take place well before December

Loss of economic momentum. ISM leading indicators point downwards. Normalization continues in the labor market. Services inflation finally falls. The Fed is overdue and will have to act. Focus on USD-denominated assets. Key points US economy loses momentum Economic slowdown takes shape in Q2 ISM leading indicators turn downward Falling tensions in the job market [...]
04 Jul

Positive outlook for the euro zone

Moderate GDP growth. Inflation may fall further. The ECB has begun its rate-cutting cycle. Positive outlook for bond markets. Price/net asset ratios still attractive. Very favorable discount for equities. Key points 1st quarter rebound to continue into 2024 Growth returns at a slower pace Leading indicators remain uncertain Household confidence stabilizes Inflation may yet decline [...]
28 Jun

BoE to cut key rates in august

The UK is already out of recession. Weaker growth in Q2. Inflation nears BoE target. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The expected economic rebound is underway A probably weaker 2nd quarter Leading indicators continue to improve Falling tensions in the job market Household [...]
26 Jun

Outlook for Swiss equities remains positive

No recession in Switzerland. Worrying leading indicators. Falling exports. Inflation stumbles over the 1% threshold. Rate cuts in line with our expectations. Limited weakness of the franc. Long-term rate target achieved. Positive outlook for the SMI. Key points The Swiss economy is moving at a slow pace Swiss exports plunge again Leading indicators more worrying [...]
26 Jun

The fall in the yen will push the boj into action

Japan is in recession. GDP may improve in Q3. Export rebound. Temporary upturn in inflation. Household confidence at half-mast. Yen at lowest level since 1986. Outlook for Nikkei still positive. Key points Further contraction of the Japanese economy Improvement possible in Q3 Further hesitation in leading indicators Household consumption remains subdued Falling yen boosts imported [...]
10 Apr

Further rise in commodity prices in 2024

Crude oil prices could rise by +10% to +15% in 2024. Potential rebound in natural gas prices from $1.5 to $2.5 MMBtu. Target of $32 to $35 per ounce for silver not unrealistic. Promising trend reversal for industrial metals. Key points Further rise in commodity prices in 2024 Crude oil prices could rise by +10% [...]
03 Apr

Positive environment for USD assets

Resilient economic momentum. Encouraging leading indicators. Recession risks averted. Inflation close to Fed target. 1st rate cut in May. Positive environment for USD assets. Beware of high PEs. USD winner. Key points US economy maintains good momentum at start of 2024 No recession, but a gradual slowdown Steady improvement in leading indicators Declining tension in [...]
22 Mar

Positive outlook for the euro and major european assets

GDP stagnates in early 2024. Stagflation takes hold despite net decline in inflation. Less restrictive monetary policy from June. Long rates may fall by 50 bps. Positive outlook for the euro, securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP stagnates Stagflation sets in early 2024 Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Slight improvement in confidence [...]
15 Mar

Brighter prospects for british assets

A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The UK has finally entered recession The start of 2024 could already be more positive Slight improvement [...]
06 Mar

Lower Swiss franc boosts SMI outlook

Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI. Key points Swiss economy surprisingly resilient Swiss exports penalized by strong franc Leading indicators remain uninspiring Swiss inflation is now close to +1% SNB may lower rates [...]