Category: Weekly Analysis

Germany is back. Economic recovery in H2. PMI index rather positive. Inflation below 2%. ECB still flexible. Moderate outlook for bonds. Positive context for the euro and real estate. Return of equity risks. Key points Economic conditions continue to improve in Europe Positive momentum continues in 2nd half Leading indicators remain moderately optimistic Household confidence [...]

Surprise rebound in GDP. Leading indicators uncertain. Inflation remains stubborn. BoE to remain cautious until September. High risk premium for bonds. Securitized real estate trending positively. Loss of momentum for the FTSE100. Key points Surprising rebound in Q1 GDP exceeds expectations International uncertainty weighs on the UK economy Leading indicators point to a transition Real [...]

A particularly robust Q1. Growth expected to slow in Q2. Leading indicators uncertain and mixed. Switzerland back in deflation. SNB to cut rates in June. Swiss franc likely to weaken. Increasing risks for equities. Key points A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP High risks of growth slowing in Q2 More nuanced and contrasting [...]

Slowdown in growth. Mixed leading indicators. Inflation still too high. Halt to the normalisation of BoJ policy. Lower risks on long-term rates. The yen may appreciate further. The Nikkei is plateauing. Key points Slowdown in consumption and exports in Q1 Uncertainty remains high for Q2 Leading indicators still mixed Consumption resilient but still cautious Inflation [...]

The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and ends free trade. An absurd new paradigm, reminiscent of the origins of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The worst may not be certain, but America will have a hard time regaining credibility. Key points The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and [...]

Economic momentum halted. Trump and DOGE break confidence. Complicated dilemma for the Fed. 15% tariffs and +1.5% inflation. Fixed-income markets benefit from recession risks. Dollar and equities under pressure. Key points U.S. economy slows down since Trump Growth halted in the first half of 2025 Leading indicators point to a slowdown DOGE's action affects jobs [...]

Germany creates a new situation. Economic recovery in H2. PMI up. Inflation under control. ECB accommodating. Outlook moderate outlook for bonds. Positive backdrop for the euro, real estate and equities Key points Eurozone momentum weakens again Q1 2025 will remain weak before the next upturn Leading indicators are already strengthening Household confidence set to improve [...]

Fragile economic climate. Persistent uncertainty. Risk of stagflation. Inflation not yet under control. BoE will have to cut rates. High risk premium for bonds. Securitized real estate on hold. FTSE 100 target achieved. Key points Economic weakness continues into 2025 Uncertainty does not support the British economy Leading indicators confirm GDP stagnation Labour market still [...]

Exports support GDP. Q1 2025 probably solid. Positive momentum in services. Further rate hike in March. Potential appreciation of yen to 140 against USD. Increasing risks for the Nikkei. Ten-year yield at 1.5%. Key points Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid Leading indicators supported by [...]

Weak Q1 GDP growth. Services PMI still solid. Near-deflationary situation on a monthly basis for the past six months. Zero key rates in 2025? Bond opportunities to be avoided. Positive outlook for small caps. Key points Swiss growth slows despite resilient household consumption Q1 GDP growth limited to +0.2% Swiss exports slide at the start [...]