Category: Weekly Analysis

07 Jan

Return of reasonable expectations in the USA for Q1

Declining confidence threatens the economy. Inflationary excessive fears. Fed too cautious again. End of QT imminent. Opportunities in bond markets. Equities continue to rise. Dollar still in demand. Key points US economy still solid in Q4? Where is the US economy heading in the short run? Leading indicators remain hesitant The job market shows no [...]
03 Jan

100 BP cut in ECB rates in 2025

Resilient domestic demand. Potentially stronger Q4. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation stabilizing near +2%. ECB cuts 100 bps by 2025. Difficult situation for the euro. Opportunities in financial markets. Key points Economy holds up thanks to domestic demand Q4 may prove stronger than expected Leading indicators strengthen without conviction Household confidence remains hesitant Inflation stabilizes [...]
17 Dec

Brighter prospects for British assets

Moderate economic growth in 2025. Inflation almost under control. Accommodating monetary policy. Sharp downward adjustment in long-term interest rates. Positive outlook for bonds, listed real estate and equities. Key points Sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 A still relatively weak end to the year Further declines in manufacturing and services PMIs Slight easing of tensions in the [...]
02 Dec

Nikkei lacks catalyst to test 42,000

Economic momentum still weak. Slightly better end to the year. Consumption resilient. More restrictive monetary policy. Yen stabilizes at around 145 against the USD. Avoid bonds. Reduced outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Economic momentum remains weak in Japan Last quarter of 2024 probably a little better Leading indicators remain uncertain Consumption resilient but cautious [...]
21 Nov

Attractive valuation of swiss equities

Weak Q4 GDP growth. Leading indicators still uncertain. Surprise rebound in exports. Inflation target at 0.3%. Key rates at 0.25% in 2025. Limited weakness of the Swiss franc. Positive outlook for Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP slows down and only grows by +0.2% A likely very weak fourth quarter Swiss exports rebound in October [...]
05 Oct

The Fed envisages key rates at 3.25% in 2025

GDP growth still solid. A slightly more moderate 2nd half? Easing tensions in the job market. Monetary easing cycle finally underway. Six cuts expected to benefit dollar-denominated assets by 2025. Key points GDP growth still looks solid Will the 2nd half really be weaker? Leading service indicators remain favorable Job market tensions ease The Federal [...]
30 Sep

Positive trend for European assets

Moderate GDP growth with little likelihood of acceleration. Leading indicators and confidence at half-mast. CPI to fall below +2% very soon. Looser monetary policy. Appreciation of the euro, bonds and equities. Key points European economy grows at a moderate pace No acceleration in short-term growth Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Confidence remains extremely fragile Inflation [...]
23 Sep

BoE to cut rates slowly and cautiously

The UK consolidates its recovery from recession. 2024 GDP growth above +1%. Inflation not quite under control. Monetary policy finally more flexible. Moderately positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points Further UK GDP growth of +0.6 Positive 3rd quarter driven by consumer spending Leading indicators strengthen Uncertain trends in the job market [...]
20 Sep

Fragile recovery in Japanese growth

Return to GDP growth. Fragile positive momentum. Moderate consumer confidence. Inflation still too high. Sustainable rebound of the yen? Lower tensions for BoJ. No interest in bonds. Nikkei at 40,000? Key points Japanese growth resumes at a moderate pace Continued momentum towards the end of the year Leading indicators remain subdued Consumer momentum still fragile [...]