Category: Weekly Analysis

Economic momentum still weak. Slightly better end to the year. Consumption resilient. More restrictive monetary policy. Yen stabilizes at around 145 against the USD. Avoid bonds. Reduced outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Economic momentum remains weak in Japan Last quarter of 2024 probably a little better Leading indicators remain uncertain Consumption resilient but cautious [...]

Weak Q4 GDP growth. Leading indicators still uncertain. Surprise rebound in exports. Inflation target at 0.3%. Key rates at 0.25% in 2025. Limited weakness of the Swiss franc. Positive outlook for Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP slows down and only grows by +0.2% A likely very weak fourth quarter Swiss exports rebound in October [...]

Global growth of over 4% expected. The Fed's pivot: a decisive turning point for markets and investment. Falling oil supplies drive prices higher. Precious metals still on the rise. Key points Global GDP growth could exceed +4% in 2025 The Fed's pivot is a game changer The new global rate-cutting cycle is a decisive factor [...]

GDP growth still solid. A slightly more moderate 2nd half? Easing tensions in the job market. Monetary easing cycle finally underway. Six cuts expected to benefit dollar-denominated assets by 2025. Key points GDP growth still looks solid Will the 2nd half really be weaker? Leading service indicators remain favorable Job market tensions ease The Federal [...]

Moderate GDP growth with little likelihood of acceleration. Leading indicators and confidence at half-mast. CPI to fall below +2% very soon. Looser monetary policy. Appreciation of the euro, bonds and equities. Key points European economy grows at a moderate pace No acceleration in short-term growth Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Confidence remains extremely fragile Inflation [...]

The UK consolidates its recovery from recession. 2024 GDP growth above +1%. Inflation not quite under control. Monetary policy finally more flexible. Moderately positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points Further UK GDP growth of +0.6 Positive 3rd quarter driven by consumer spending Leading indicators strengthen Uncertain trends in the job market [...]

Return to GDP growth. Fragile positive momentum. Moderate consumer confidence. Inflation still too high. Sustainable rebound of the yen? Lower tensions for BoJ. No interest in bonds. Nikkei at 40,000? Key points Japanese growth resumes at a moderate pace Continued momentum towards the end of the year Leading indicators remain subdued Consumer momentum still fragile [...]

Temporary acceleration in GDP. Leading indicators still uncertain. Fall in exports. Inflation below 1%. Key rates at 0.75%. Limited franc weakness. Long-term interest rate target reached. Positive outlook for Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP growth accelerates significantly Swiss exports plummet since April Leading indicators still too uncertain Inflation will temporarily fall below 1%. SNB [...]

An unavoidable theme penalized by interest rates. A volatile but successful sector. Falling inflation and new interest-rate cycle favorable to the sector. Profit growth in excess of +20%/year. Significant discounts vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Key points Energy transition is an unavoidable theme, penalized in the short term by rising interest rates. Attractive but volatile [...]

Loss of economic momentum. ISM leading indicators point downwards. Normalization continues in the labor market. Services inflation finally falls. The Fed is overdue and will have to act. Focus on USD-denominated assets. Key points US economy loses momentum Economic slowdown takes shape in Q2 ISM leading indicators turn downward Falling tensions in the job market [...]