Category: Weekly Analysis

Weak Q1 GDP growth. Services PMI still solid. Near-deflationary situation on a monthly basis for the past six months. Zero key rates in 2025? Bond opportunities to be avoided. Positive outlook for small caps. Key points Swiss growth slows despite resilient household consumption Q1 GDP growth limited to +0.2% Swiss exports slide at the start [...]

A market close to imbalance this winter. Reduction in Russian production. New American sanctions change the situation. Oil prices higher than expected. Positive outlook for prices and the global oil sector. Key points World oil market: oversupply? Oil demand underestimated for 2025 The oil market may already be out of balance this winter Russian production [...]

Declining confidence threatens the economy. Inflationary excessive fears. Fed too cautious again. End of QT imminent. Opportunities in bond markets. Equities continue to rise. Dollar still in demand. Key points US economy still solid in Q4? Where is the US economy heading in the short run? Leading indicators remain hesitant The job market shows no [...]

Resilient domestic demand. Potentially stronger Q4. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation stabilizing near +2%. ECB cuts 100 bps by 2025. Difficult situation for the euro. Opportunities in financial markets. Key points Economy holds up thanks to domestic demand Q4 may prove stronger than expected Leading indicators strengthen without conviction Household confidence remains hesitant Inflation stabilizes [...]

Moderate economic growth in 2025. Inflation almost under control. Accommodating monetary policy. Sharp downward adjustment in long-term interest rates. Positive outlook for bonds, listed real estate and equities. Key points Sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 A still relatively weak end to the year Further declines in manufacturing and services PMIs Slight easing of tensions in the [...]

Economic momentum still weak. Slightly better end to the year. Consumption resilient. More restrictive monetary policy. Yen stabilizes at around 145 against the USD. Avoid bonds. Reduced outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Economic momentum remains weak in Japan Last quarter of 2024 probably a little better Leading indicators remain uncertain Consumption resilient but cautious [...]

Weak Q4 GDP growth. Leading indicators still uncertain. Surprise rebound in exports. Inflation target at 0.3%. Key rates at 0.25% in 2025. Limited weakness of the Swiss franc. Positive outlook for Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP slows down and only grows by +0.2% A likely very weak fourth quarter Swiss exports rebound in October [...]

Global growth of over 4% expected. The Fed's pivot: a decisive turning point for markets and investment. Falling oil supplies drive prices higher. Precious metals still on the rise. Key points Global GDP growth could exceed +4% in 2025 The Fed's pivot is a game changer The new global rate-cutting cycle is a decisive factor [...]

GDP growth still solid. A slightly more moderate 2nd half? Easing tensions in the job market. Monetary easing cycle finally underway. Six cuts expected to benefit dollar-denominated assets by 2025. Key points GDP growth still looks solid Will the 2nd half really be weaker? Leading service indicators remain favorable Job market tensions ease The Federal [...]

Moderate GDP growth with little likelihood of acceleration. Leading indicators and confidence at half-mast. CPI to fall below +2% very soon. Looser monetary policy. Appreciation of the euro, bonds and equities. Key points European economy grows at a moderate pace No acceleration in short-term growth Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Confidence remains extremely fragile Inflation [...]