GDP growth still solid. A slightly more moderate 2nd half? Easing tensions in the job market. Monetary easing cycle finally underway. Six cuts expected to benefit dollar-denominated assets by 2025.

Key points

• GDP growth still looks solid
• Will the 2nd half really be weaker?
• Leading service indicators remain favorable
• Job market tensions ease
• The Federal Reserve corrects its June inaction
• Inflation to fall below +2% in Q1 2025
• Attractive outlook for USD bonds
• Policy theoretically unfavorable to the USD
• Overall positive environment for equities

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