22
Dec
2026 start very uncertain in the United States
GDP slows in Q3. Soft landing in Q4 and Q1 2026 highly uncertain. High underemployment at 8.7%. Key interest rates close to neutral. Risks of inflation rebound in Q1. Reduced outlook for bonds. Consolidation of equity markets.
Key points
- Growth slows in Q3 after Q2 euphoria
- Soft landing in Q4 for US GDP
- Leading indicators remain positive in services
- Unemployment rises to 4.6% and underemployment to 8.7%
- Fed cuts rates close to neutral level
- Risks of sharp rebound in inflation in Q1 2026
- Less clear outlook for bond market
- New paradigm for the dollar
- Risk/return ratio unfavorable for US equities
