Category: Weekly Analysis

Resilient economy. Household consumption is recovering. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation still too high. No further rate hikes before 2026. Probable rise in the yen. The Nikkei is at an inflection point. Key points Slowdown in Households are spending, but businesses are hesitant Slowdown likely until the end of the year Composite PMI supported by [...]

Growth is slowing as expected. Stagnation likely in Q3 and Q4. Leading indicators uncertain and mixed. Deflation setting in. The SNB must cut rates significantly. Swiss bonds are unattractive. Swiss equities under threat. Key points Moderate growth in Q2 confirms expected slowdown High risk of stagnation in Q4 Leading indicators more nuanced and mixed CPI [...]

AI and autonomous vehicles are strengthening China's technological power. China dominates 5G, batteries, and renewable energy. Chinese stocks are outperforming but remain underrepresented. Key points Chinese leadership in a growing number of key sectors China is rapidly becoming the world's largest market for industrial robots Rising technological power reshaping the global balance and driving competition [...]

The trade war is accelerating China's emancipation. China has become a major technological power. Chinese leadership in an increasing number of key sectors. Chinese stocks are attractive and underrepresented. Key points The trade war is accelerating China's emancipation China has become a major technological power A clear and confident government commitment GDP resilience despite the [...]

Yields on US Treasury bonds have shown significant volatility. For the bond markets, the situation is already complex and the equation is difficult to solve. The SNB is considering negative interest rates if the franc continues its upward trend. Key points Continued decoupling between fixed income markets Between recession and inflation, rates are wavering in [...]

The United States looks ever more fragile under Trump's policies. Economic slowdown and rising inflation likely. High uncertainty and low visibility induced by current chaos not conducive to long-term investment in Switzerland. Key points Macroeconomic risks and uncertainties return The US market levitates dangerously UK stocks are risky again The Nikkei rebound is now likely [...]

Q2 GDP will mask weakness in consumption. Effects of tariffs postponed to H2. Continuing Fed dilemma. Rates vacillate between recession and inflation. Chaos has destabilized the dollar. Focus on defensive equities. Key points GDP likely but misleading to rebound in Q2 Economy withstands Trump-induced chaos Leading indicators remain indecisive Employment shows signs of cracking Dilemma [...]

Germany is back. Economic recovery in H2. PMI index rather positive. Inflation below 2%. ECB still flexible. Moderate outlook for bonds. Positive context for the euro and real estate. Return of equity risks. Key points Economic conditions continue to improve in Europe Positive momentum continues in 2nd half Leading indicators remain moderately optimistic Household confidence [...]

Surprise rebound in GDP. Leading indicators uncertain. Inflation remains stubborn. BoE to remain cautious until September. High risk premium for bonds. Securitized real estate trending positively. Loss of momentum for the FTSE100. Key points Surprising rebound in Q1 GDP exceeds expectations International uncertainty weighs on the UK economy Leading indicators point to a transition Real [...]

A particularly robust Q1. Growth expected to slow in Q2. Leading indicators uncertain and mixed. Switzerland back in deflation. SNB to cut rates in June. Swiss franc likely to weaken. Increasing risks for equities. Key points A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP High risks of growth slowing in Q2 More nuanced and contrasting [...]