Category: Weekly Analysis

Foundations of central bank creation. The concept of decision-making independence. Roles, missions and objectives. Appointments linked to political power. Who are the shareholders? Who benefits from financial results? Real independence? Key points Who owns the central banks whose monetary policies guide our economies? Reminder of the foundations of central bank creation and the concept of [...]

Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation will reach the +2% target in Q2 2024. The Fed will have to cut rates. Continued readjustment of yield curves. The dollar under pressure. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Significant slowdown after an exceptional 3rd quarter Declining momentum raises fears of recession Leading indicators do not point to [...]

Entry into recession in Q4. Inflation declines faster than expected. New paradigm for ECB policy and euro bond yields. Favourable environment for securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP finally slips into negative territory in Q3 Technical recession expected in Q4 2023 Leading indicators point to a fall in activity Confidence indices stabilize [...]

Recession postponed until 2024. Household confidence improves. Inflation finally falling significantly. Prudence and pragmatism from the BoE. Rates normalize. Rebound in securitized real estate and equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Recession postponed until early 2024 Timid recovery in leading indicators Significant downturns in the labor market Household confidence improves Inflation finally [...]

Economic slowdown in Q4. Inflation close to zero. Easing in Q2 2024. Historical yield differentials unfavourable to the franc. Bond yields below 1%. Sharp rise in corporate profits in 2024. Key points Q3 better, but questionable Slowdown expected in Q4 Fragile resilience in household consumption Leading indicators still uninspiring Further decline in foreign trade No [...]

Possible recession in the 4th quarter. Rebound in inflation linked to the fall in the currency. Contraction in real household income. Monetary policy still expansionary. Yen's decline falters. Less positive conditions for the Nikkei. Key points A much more dramatic 3rd quarter than expected Possible recession at the end of the year in Japan Significant [...]

Temporary halt to energy transition. Drastic profit revisions. Excessive price corrections. Impact of rising interest rates already factored in. Medium-term outlook underestimated. Attractive valuations for 2024. Key points The energy transition is temporarily threatened by inflation, rising interest rates and some changes in political direction Historic but volatile investment opportunities Alternative energies more sensitive to [...]

Rising production costs. Decline in mining production and recycling supply. Falling interest rates and dollar boost gold prices. Renewed demand for bullion and coins. Return of ETF fund flows. Key points Gold's uptrend set to resume soon Towards a probable imbalance in the gold market Sharp rise in production costs Mine production expected to decline [...]

Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation falls in services. Long-lasting Fed pause. Downward adjustments to yield curves. Weak dollar. Positive outlook for bonds and equities. Key points Economic growth may be slowing more than it seems Slowdown looms for year-end Leading indicators suggest a soft landing Job market still highly uncertain The Federal Reserve will [...]

Recession likely in 2nd half. Leading indicators fall. Household confidence erodes. Inflation finally falls. End of rate hike cycle. Real estate consolidates. Attractive valuation of equities. Key points Resurgence of risks to the British economy Recession in the 2nd half Further worrying declines in leading indicators Significant downturns in the job market Household confidence and [...]