Category: Weekly Analysis

Good economic growth in Q1 (+0.5%). Inflation (+1.9%) in sharp decline and already below SNB target. End of rate hike cycle in sight. Opportunities in bond markets. Bullish revival for equities. Key points Swiss economy surprises on the upside with +0.5% GDP growth in Q1 Domestic demand and exports underpin GDP Leading indicators still very [...]

Securitized real estate is too severely affected by rising rates. Discounts in Europe and the UK. Attractive absolute returns. Appealing risk premiums in Switzerland. Historical premiums and discounts for Swiss assets. Key points Return of volatility in securitized real estate The correction in securitized real estate is an opportunity European securitized real estate unfairly penalized [...]

The first signs of the end of petrodollars and the beginning of de-dollarization. China unites the discontented and proposes an alternative to the dollar. Petrodollars, petroyuans and the new BRICS currency. 4 major consequences of de-dollarization. Key points How the dollar becomes THE international currency 50 years of dollar hegemony Emergence of petrodollars in the [...]

Slower GDP growth in Q1. A soft landing is emerging. Decline in leading indicators. Employment is finally deteriorating. Consumption expected to fall. Inflation will slip below 5%. The Fed will pause. Weakening of the dollar. Opportunities in the capital markets. Positive outlook for equities. Key points A solid year-end will give way to a soft [...]

Recession likely in 2023. ECB rate target at 4%. Decorrelation of monetary policies. Bullish recovery of domestic yields. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations of securitized real estate and equities. Key points European economy falters but still avoids a recession in Q4 2022 Limited economic contraction in the first half of the year Leading indicators [...]

Recession in 2023. A resilient 1st quarter. Temporary recovery in household confidence. Inflation not under control. BoE on pause. Bond yields adjust. Real estate succumbs. Equities still attractive Key points Uk economy moves closer to a recession Q1 2023 could still be resilient Leading indicators still mixed Job market still resilient Household confidence has improved [...]

The bankruptcy of the SVB has various consequences. The systemic risk seems to be ruled out by central banks. CS is a global systemic bank. SNB support was expected. A likely new paradigm for rates. Key points Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy will affect US monetary policy The next US rate hike could be the [...]

Growth at a standstill in Q4. Mixed leading indicators. Slight improvement in consumer confidence. Trade deficit narrowed. Inflation down. Expansionary monetary policy. Moderate outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Japan's economy stalled in Q4 (9%) Barely positive outlook for Q1 2023 GDP growth up +1% in 2023 Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Weak improvement in [...]

The economy stagnated in the fourth quarter. Recession risks remain low. The rebound in inflation does not appear to be sustainable. Monetary policy reversal delayed. Attractive bond yields. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Swiss economy stalls in Q4 Outlook reduced to +0.7% growth in 2023 Domestic demand supports GDP Leading indicators slightly more positive [...]

180 degree turn by the Chinese government. Total opening of the country. Growth to resume in 2023. Energy sector supported by Asia. Historically low metal stocks and potential demand increases in 2023. High potential for appreciation in metal prices in the coming year. Key points End of China's zero Covid policy upsets forecasts Oil demand [...]