Category: Uncategorized

Likely easing of credit standards could counter rising interest rates. Investment funds’ high premiums should be put into perspective. Key points Don’t overestimate the ‘interest rate’ factor: other elements must be considered Supply remains limited: scarcely 40,000 units built in Switzerland in 2016 The February 9 vote will not change the demographic outlook overall; an [...]

Strong producer price growth (+7.8%). China will export inflation. Positive GDP outlook. Surge in external demand. Increase in profits in China in 2017. Key points Growth in China’s PPI (+7.8%) reinforces global inflation prospects Increase in export prices of +6.3% Li Keqiang announces growth target for 2017 of 6.5% A positive surprise for China’s GDP [...]

Japan is benefitting from the global recovery. The forecast weakness of the yen could last. Exports are recovering. Weak domestic demand. Positive prospects for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP moved up +0.3% in 4th quarter 2016 Exports are propping up the recovery Domestic demand remains too sluggish GDP should increase +1.5% in 2017 Leading [...]

The cost of Brexit is in fact impossible to estimate. Fiscal reform and deregulation are not magic bullets. GDP could slow to +1.6% in 2017. Uncertainty calls for caution. Key points The EU could claim 60 billion euros from the UK upon withdrawal Another setback for Theresa May Compensating for the impact of a hard [...]

Lack of impetus in the second quarter. Consumption remains robust. Export recovery in 2017. Leading indicators are strong. What opportunities are financial markets offering? Key points The economy stepped up the pace in 2016, despite a disappointing second quarter Considerable positive contribution from consumption Slight increase in public spending Overall increase in domestic demand Foreign [...]

Chaotic first weeks in the White House. Inflation reaches 2.5% in the US. Increased investment demand. Market thrown off balance. Rise in gold prices. Key points Donald Trump’s policies strengthen bullish prospects for gold in 2017 Most key factors now favourable to rise in gold Significant increase in systemic, political and geopolitical risks Deflation is [...]

Trend reversal in long-term interest rates. Clear return of inflationary expectations. Higher yields in the US and emerging markets. Stay cautious regarding increases in Europe. Key points The election of Donald Trump hastened the end of the global bond bull market The shift in global expectations has caused a generalised increase in long-term interest rates [...]