07
Mar
Brexit could cost the UK 60 billion euros
The cost of Brexit is in fact impossible to estimate. Fiscal reform and deregulation are not magic bullets. GDP could slow to +1.6% in 2017. Uncertainty calls for caution.
Key points
- The EU could claim 60 billion euros from the UK upon withdrawal
- Another setback for Theresa May
- Compensating for the impact of a hard Brexit with aggressive tax cuts seems like wishful thinking
- Many European citizens are already leaving the UK
- The pound stabilises
- The BOE remains alert but hasn’t changed its monetary policy
- Consumers remain on the defensive
- GDP growth will likely slacken in 2017
- Real estate further runs out of steam
- Bond euphoria comes to an end
- British equities underperform
