Category: Uncategorized

Economic forecasts adjusted. Modest inflation. Long-term rates recovery. The Fed is sticking to its plan. Consumers remain confident. The S&P 500 is too highly dependent on GAFAs. Key points Lower GDP growth (+1.4%) in Q1 2nd quarter should be better (+3.1%) Negative economic surprises Leading indicators are sowing doubt The labour market is tense Donald [...]

GDP growth accelerates to +1.9%. Franco-German couple rekindled. Fall in political uncertainty. Clear increase in company profits. Consensus is optimistic. Key points The Eurozone is still able to produce surprises, with a stronger than forecast economic trend Better growth prospects for the Eurozone in 2017 Reforms in France versus fiscal expansion in Germany? Real terms [...]

Exports are driving growth (+3.9%). Spending is disappointing (+0.1%). Inflation rises +0.5%. Leading indicators are lagging behind. The SNB believes the Swiss franc to be overvalued. Key points Best quarter for growth in Swiss GDP since June 2016 (+0.3%) Clear, welcome bounce back in exports (+3.9%) Private spending is struggling (+0.1%) despite the unemployment rate [...]

May’s gamble fails to pay off. No more hard Brexit? The pound stabilises. GDP in decline. Real estate losing steam. Inflation to drive long-term rates up. Insufficient visibility on equities. Key points Theresa May could well miss the mark during the upcoming general election Chance of more serene negotiations A less hostile Brexit? Likely stabilisation [...]

Falling yen boosts exports. GDP also benefits from global economic recovery. Stabilisation of the yen. Pick-up in consumption. Increase in profits. Nikkei undervalued. Key points Remarkable Q1 in Japan in terms of economic growth Fifth consecutive month of export growth Japan GDP rises 2.2% yoy in March and 0.5% over the quarter Positive contribution of [...]

American politics in turmoil again. What’s happening with Trump’s tax plan? Increased uncertainty and risk of disappointment. Profit taking is vital. Buy gold! Key points American politics in turmoil again, could trigger a sudden shift in risk perception Increasingly unpredictable outlook for Donald Trump’s economic programme Expecting a less ambitious tax plan US companies will [...]

Normalisation of US monetary policy is intensifying. Some correlation on rate markets once again. Commodities and employment are propping up inflation. Key points 2017 will mark the end of global quantitative easing Normalisation of monetary policy is confirmed with the Fed’s 3rd rate rise Next steps: the ECB, BoJ, and PBOC will reduce liquidity injections [...]

Growth is accelerating in the Eurozone. The ECB will soon be in tapering mode. Negative real terms interest rates. Asset reallocation favors equities and real estate. Key points The economic dynamic in the Eurozone picked up the pace in the 1st quarter GDP could hit +0.6% Change in perception of growth prospects in the Eurozone [...]

Budgetary deficit and debt set to increase. The rise in inflation and rates will continue. Positive prospects for the dollar. The increase in profits is propping up the S&P 500. Key points The US treasury is adopting measures to remain below the US $20 trillion debt threshold The CBO estimates that US public debt will [...]

PMI and industrial production rising. Inflation normalising. Equity market valuations remain attractive. What are the risks? Key points The American growth engine is driving advances in the rest of the world Leading indicators and industrial production are promising Inflation is virtually under control in Russia and Brazil, allowing financing conditions to ease The positive commodities [...]