Category: Investment flash

17 Jan

What if Swiss inflation falls to +0.5% in March ?

Inflation in Switzerland has already reached the SNB's target for six months, while most other central bankers still need to steer its decline to approach their 2% target. Since June 2023, the Swiss CPI index has indeed slipped below the critical threshold of 2%, reaching its lowest point since the pandemic at 1.4% by the [...]
11 Jan

Normalization of yield curves in 2024

The preferred soft landing scenario for early 2024 will also support the continued normalization of inflation towards the Fed's target. The current inversion of yield curves in the USA is exclusively due to the high level of key rates and, consequently, of the short end of the yield curves. Against this backdrop, a 100 bp [...]
20 Dec

Return of geopolitical influence on crude oil

The evolution of the global macroeconomic scenario, suggesting a weakening of growth prospects for 2024, has already had a fairly significant negative impact on crude oil prices in recent weeks. However, the relatively orderly decline in crude oil prices from almost $95 a barrel at the end of September to just $68 in mid-December, due [...]
13 Dec

Normalization of outlooks for GBP rates

The increasingly visible cyclical slowdown, along with a more pronounced easing of inflation, now raises hopes for a somewhat different trajectory than envisaged just a few months ago for interest rates. In October, the ten-year rates of the UK government once again reached the (...) More favorable evolution supported by a clearer easing of inflation [...]
07 Dec

Silver prices do not reflect fundamentals

The silver prices do not reflect the very positive fundamentals of the current market. Industrial and jewelry demand are expected to show strong growth over the next decade. In particular, the demand for silver in the rapidly expanding solar sector is extremely robust, as is the demand related to the production of electric vehicles. These [...]
30 Nov

Less favorable environment for Nikkei

Japanese corporate profits are likely to have risen by 14% in Q3 and, according to the current consensus, should increase by a further 11.4% in 2024. On the basis of these results and expectations, the Japanese market advanced until June and then stabilised. It outperformed the other developed markets in local currencies, gaining (...) The [...]
22 Nov

Swiss real estate favored by a 1% 10-year rate

After the sharp rise in the Swiss Confederation's ten-year yields to 1.6% in December 2022 and March 2023, the long end of the CHF yield curve steepened fairly sharply over the summer. Ten-year yields then followed the international uptrend from June to October, before falling back (...) Attractive yields, risk premiums and agios Discover our [...]
16 Nov

Improvement of the stock market climate for small-cap stocks  

The Nasdaq technology stock index has significantly outperformed the Russell 2000 small-cap index. The outperformance of +43% in 2023 is massive and is the largest since the internet bubble of 1999. At that time, the performance gap was twice as wide, leading some to believe that the Nasdaq's relative performance still has (...) Interest rate [...]
09 Nov

Fall in SNB and M3 foreign exchange reserves  

The SNB is perhaps no longer as concerned about the level of inflation now that it appears to have been contained at +0.1%/month for the past five months. This development should clearly allow the SNB to consider that its action has been effective, since core inflation is now (...) SNB will ease its policy well [...]
26 Oct

1,000 Billion Yuan for the Chinese economy

The Chinese government has adopted a strategy resolutely geared towards supporting economic growth, announcing the issue of 1,000 billion yuan of sovereign debt in recent days. This injection of liquidity complements other measures, and will be (...) More is needed to stimulate growth Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you [...]