Energy and commodity prices are finally declining. Inflation may have peaked. Recession risks outweigh inflation fears. The bearish scenario is widely shared. Markets likely to rebound in Q3.

Key points

• Recession risk intensify
• Consumption and production are adjusting
• Inflation persists but will decline in the second half
• The recent fall in commodity prices is reducing
  inflationary pressures
• The worst may be over in the short-term capital markets
• A window of opportunity is ready to open in the
  financial markets
• The bearish scenario is widely shared

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