Possible recession in the first half of 2023 in the UK. Decline in capital market tensions. New regime for the BoE. Exit from the crisis for the pound sterling. Expected correction in real estate. Positive conditions for equities.

Key points

• The UK economy is resisting inflationary pressures and rising interest rates
• Negative GDP to end 2022
• Leading indicators still not very encouraging
• Labour market still little affected
• Household confidence remains at half mast
• No tangible signs of price declines yet
• Regime change for key interest rates
• Decline in bond market tensions
• Exit from the crisis for the pound sterling
• Significant fall in house prices
• Still positive conditions for UK equities

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