Limited recession in 2023. Inflation surprises the ECB. End of restrictive cycle closer to 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities.

Key points

• The European economy is still at a standstill
• The 2nd quarter is likely to remain very weak
• Leading indicators show further declines
• European households less worried than manufacturers
• Falling inflation exceeds ECB expectations
• The ECB is set to raise its key rates to 5%
• Bond yields have yet to adjust
• Euro supported by interest-rate differentials
• Securitized real estate penalized by extreme pessimism
• European equities benefit from higher PEs and returns

Discover an extract from our weekly analysis below:

Full version