A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities.

Key points

• The UK has finally entered recession
• The start of 2024 could already be more positive
• Slight improvement in leading indicators
• Tensions in the labor market easing
• Households seem more confident
• Inflation falls and approaches BoE targets
• BoE soon in a position to cut rates
• Attractive yields and capital gains prospects for sterling bonds
• Stable GBP/USD exchange rate
• Time to bet on securitized real estate
• Discount still attractive for equities

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