GDP stagnates in early 2024. Stagflation takes hold despite net decline in inflation. Less restrictive monetary policy from June. Long rates may fall by 50 bps. Positive outlook for the euro, securitized real estate and equities.

Key points

• Eurozone GDP stagnates
• Stagflation sets in early 2024
• Leading indicators remain highly uncertain
• Slight improvement in confidence and sentiment
• Falling inflation loses momentum
• Change in monetary policy imminent
• Positive outlook for bond markets
• Inflation and interest rate spreads favorable to the euro
• Securitized real estate to benefit from lower rates
• Favourable backdrop for European equities
• European equities rise again

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