Return to GDP growth. Fragile positive momentum. Moderate consumer confidence. Inflation still too high. Sustainable rebound of the yen? Lower tensions for BoJ. No interest in bonds. Nikkei at 40,000?

Key points

• Japanese growth resumes at a moderate pace
• Continued momentum towards the end of the year
• Leading indicators remain subdued
• Consumer momentum still fragile
• Can the yen’s +15% rise reduce inflation?
• Pressure eases a little for the BoJ
• Bond market still unattractive
• Can the yen continue to rise?
• Nikkei back to 40,000 level

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