10
Jul
The hour of truth draws near in the United States
Q2 GDP will mask weakness in consumption. Effects of tariffs postponed to H2. Continuing Fed dilemma. Rates vacillate between recession and inflation. Chaos has destabilized the dollar. Focus on defensive equities.
Key points
- GDP likely but misleading to rebound in Q2
- Economy withstands Trump-induced chaos
- Leading indicators remain indecisive
- Employment shows signs of cracking
- Dilemma remains intact for Fed
- Price indices yet to react to tariffs
- Between recession and inflation rates also waver
- Chaos has not been kind to the dollar
- Rebalancing in favor of more defensive sectors
