02
Apr
Stagflation is also threatening the United States
The oil shock threatens economic growth. Stagflation is the most likely scenario. Decline in consumption and investment. Rise in
key interest rates. Negative outlook for bonds and stocks. The dollar is in demand.
Key points
- Sharp slowdown in Q4 weighed down by the shutdown
- The oil shock already points to stagflation in Q1
- Oil shock still not fully reflected in the PMIs
- Job creation begins to contract
- The Fed once again faces the risk of stagflation
- Inflation likely to rebound to between 3.5% and 4%
- Outlook for bonds reverses
- Investor enthusiasm for the dollar returns
- Uncertain environment remains negative for U.S. stocks
