The rise of the yen threatens the Nikkei


31 Aug

The rise of the yen threatens the Nikkei

Growth has stabilized at a moderate pace. Consumers remain hesitant.
Persistent but limited inflationary risks. BoJ stays on course. Steepening of the yield curve. Likely appreciation of the yen. Consolidation of the Nikkei.

Key points

  • GDP momentum slows in Q2
  • Q3: Balancing domestic recovery and external risks
  • Shift in leading indicators
  • Household confidence stabilizing
  • Inflation between buffers and input pressures
  • The BoJ’s dilemma and trade-offs in the face of the currency shock
  • Sharp steepening of the yield curve
  • Conditions finally in place for a yen appreciation
  • Mixed outlook for Japanese stocks