27
Sep
Shift from stocks to bonds in Europe
GDP rebound? Stagnation likely in Q4. Leading indicators have stabilized.
Household concerns persist. Price indices are rising. The ECB is taking a tougher stance. Mixed outlook for the euro. Stocks likely to consolidate in Q4.
Key points
- Net rebound in eurozone GDP before summer (+0.4%)
- Risks of prolonged stagnation as Q4 approaches
- Leading indicators: fragile stabilization
- Household confidence undermined by doubts
- Inflation picks up, driven by PPI
- The ECB raises rates and adopts a hawkish tone
- Pressure on rates and rising yields
- Euro up vs. the Swiss franc, down vs. the dollar
- Securitized real estate under pressure from rising rates
- Cautious shift from stocks to bonds
