Is a recession looming in Germany and the Eurozone?


09 Jan

Is a recession looming in Germany and the Eurozone?

Contraction over the last quarter in Germany? Leading indicators rather bleak. ECB remains confident. Policy rates unchanged. New opportunities in equities.

Key points

  • GDP growth down -0.2% in Q3
  • German industrial output drops -1.9%
  • Slowdown in Europe is intensifying
  • Five largest EU economies are weakening
  • Leading indicators not optimistic
  • Confidence gives way to concern
  • Euro surprisingly stable
  • ECB already in electoral mode?
  • Outlook for euro fixed income markets in 2019?
  • Following the Q4 shock, European equities offer new opportunities
  • Significant adjustment of valuation and risk levels
  • European equities command a 25% risk premium