18
Mar
Positive surprise with Japanese GDP up +0.5% in Q4
Economic upturn in Q4. Necessary depreciation of the yen. Trade balance back in surplus. Leading indicators under pressure. BOJ remains cautious. Rising Nikkei.
Key points
- Positive surprise with uptick in Japanese GDP in Q4 (+0.5% and +1.9% annualised)
- Trade surplus back on the rise (339 billion)
- Increase in wages not sufficient to boost consumption
- Leading indicators under pressure from manufacturing sector
- BOJ revises expectations for recovery
- Necessary depreciation of the yen
- Avoid Japanese bonds
- Nikkei scarcely benefits from rise in confidence
- Corporate earnings fall yoy (-7%)
- Investors’ expectations are low, could be positively surprised in 2019
- Likely return of foreign investors and inflows into the Nikkei
