26
Sep
Actual risks of recession in the US overestimated
GDP up +2.2% in 2019. Declining nominal and real rates beneficial to the economy. Leading indicators still wavering. Rebound in long-term rates. Beware of PE ratios.
Key points
- Excessive pessimism unfounded but ultimately favourable to economic growth
- Nominal and real rates will support economic momentum
- The Fed confirms +2.2% GDP growth expectations for 2019
- Economic impact of trade war overestimated
- Why does the inversion of the yield curve not signal a recession?
- After two preventive cuts, monetary policy could mark a pause
- Economic indicators still wavering
- Economy more robust than it seems
- Rise in equities mainly due to PE expansion
