24
Mar
Why the economic recovery in China will be relatively robust
Whatever the magnitude of the shock in Q1, what matters is the strength of the upswing in Q2. Sharp recovery of GDP. Inventory rebuild not to be underestimated. Rise in equities.
Key points
- China did not just halt its economy in February, it also implemented a series of extraordinary stimulus measures
- What can we expect from PMI leading indicators in the next few months?
- First credible signs of a recovery
- Large companies working at 80% of their capacity
- Slower recovery for SMEs, at 60% of their capacity
- Risks of a drop in international demand mitigated by the desire to rebuild inventories
- The world post Covid-19 will want higher inventories
- Foreign reserves and stability of the yuan
- Positive outlook for equities
- Favourable relative valuations
