17
Mar
Did the UK see the worst of it in January?
UK GDP contracted by -2.9% in January. Exports to the EU plunged by -40.7%. Economic recovery postponed to Q2. Rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of an end to the lockdown support the pound.
Key points
- UK GDP shrinks by -2.9% in January
- Historic fall in British exports
- Border controls and breach of protocol
- Consumption will soon benefit from the end of the lockdown
- Trend reversal in interest rate markets
- BOE likely to maintain a stable monetary policy
- Sterling reacts to the end of the lockdown
- UK equities benefit from a 20% risk premium
