14
Oct
45% Risk premium for european equities
Europe still avoids recession. Confidence at its lowest. Inflation reaches +10%. The ECB follows a more moderate strategy. Yield curves still positive. Excessive fall in European real estate. Equity risk premium of 45%.
Key points
- Can Europe repeat its relative performance in Q3 and avoid a decline in GDP?
- Still uncertain outlook for Q4
- Leading indicators still very hesitant
- Household confidence at historic low
- No sustainable respite for inflation yet
- Decline in household and business confidence
- More flexible and progressive ECB policy
- Yield curves still positive
- Securitised real estate is in turmoil
- Risk premium still high for European equities
