Slower GDP growth in Q1. A soft landing is emerging. Decline in leading indicators. Employment is finally deteriorating. Consumption expected to fall. Inflation will slip below 5%. The Fed will pause. Weakening of the dollar. Opportunities in the capital markets. Positive outlook for equities.

Key points

• A solid year-end will give way to a soft landing
• Q1 2023 will still be positive
• Temporary decline in US momentum
• Decline in leading indicators
• Employment statistics are finally deteriorating
• The Fed should take a break
• Inflation will be below Fed funds in June
• Yield curves adjust downward
• Further decline in the dollar forecast
• Outlook for equities remains positive

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