Recession likely in 2nd half. Leading indicators fall. Household confidence erodes. Inflation finally falls. End of rate hike cycle. Real estate consolidates. Attractive valuation of equities.

Key points

• Resurgence of risks to the British economy
• Recession in the 2nd half
• Further worrying declines in leading indicators
• Significant downturns in the job market
• Household confidence and questioning
• Inflation finally coming down
• The Bank of England sees the end of the interest rate hike cycle in sight
• New highs for interest rates?
• Sterling could benefit from more attractive yields
• Real estate continues to consolidate
• Discount still attractive for equities

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