Economic slowdown in Q4. Inflation close to zero. Easing in Q2 2024. Historical yield differentials unfavourable to the franc. Bond yields below 1%. Sharp rise in corporate profits in 2024.

Key points

• Q3 better, but questionable
• Slowdown expected in Q4
• Fragile resilience in household consumption
• Leading indicators still uninspiring
• Further decline in foreign trade
• No inflation in Switzerland for nine months
• SNB monetary easing expected in Q2 2024
• Historical yield differentials unfavourable to the franc
• Bond yields falling below 1%
• Profit growth in excess of +10% in 2024

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