Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation will reach the +2% target in Q2 2024. The Fed will have to cut rates. Continued readjustment of yield curves. The dollar under pressure. Positive outlook for equities.

Key points

• Significant slowdown after an exceptional 3rd quarter
• Declining momentum raises fears of recession
• Leading indicators do not point to recession
• Relative resilience of the job market
• The Federal Reserve will have to cut rates
• Inflation to reach +2% target in Q2 2024
• Major readjustment of yield curves
• Dollar suffers as expectations adjust
• Positive outlook for equity markets

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