Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI.

Key points

• Swiss economy surprisingly resilient
• Swiss exports penalized by strong franc
• Leading indicators remain uninspiring
• Swiss inflation is now close to +1%
• SNB may lower rates in Q2 2024
• Weak franc is now likely
• Bearish recovery for Swiss bond yields
• Lower Swiss franc boosts outlook for Swiss equities

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