09
Mar
Stagflation threatens Japanese assets
Precarious balance for the economy in 2025. Conflict in the Middle East causes crude oil prices to skyrocket. Likely decline in consumer confidence. Industrial production under pressure. The BOJ faces stagflation.
Key points
- A difficult recovery in Q4
- Q1 under pressure between resilience and external shocks
- Positive leading indicators before the energy crisis
- Likely further decline in consumer confidence
- Probable temporary rebound in inflation
- The equation has become more complex for the BoJ
- The specter of stagflation threatens the yield curve
- Yen under pressure from energy shock and monetary deadlock
- Stagflation risks threaten the Nikkei
