The Swiss economy avoids technical recession. Weak outlook for H1 2026. Reversal of inflation trend. Change in the nature of risks for the SNB. Geopolitics supports the franc. Increased risks for Swiss assets.

Key points

• Swiss economy avoids technical recession in Q4
• The war in the Middle East also threatens Switzerland
• Headwinds for Swiss economy amid oil shock
• Leading indicators largely lagging
• Probable reversal of inflation trend
• New dilemma for the SNB at its March meeting
• The franc remains buoyed by geopolitical risks
• Inflationary risks reverse the interest rate market
• Risks of correction for real estate and equities

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