The Swiss economy holds up in Q1. Weak outlook for Q2 and Q3. Sluggish consumption. Inflation contained for now. SNB on hold. A "game changer" for the franc. Rising volatility in listed real estate.

Key points

• GDP growth (+0.4%) despite sluggish consumption
• Weaker but still positive outlook for Q2 (+0.2%)
• A slowdown set to extend to Q3
• Surprisingly strong signals from leading indicators
• Moderate upward revisions to inflation expectations
• Status quo at least until September from SNB
• Short-term “game-change” for the Swiss franc
• No attractive opportunities in bonds
• Extreme volatility in real estate fund indexes
• Still a complex environment for Swiss equities

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