19
Jun
Will the BoE adopt a restrictive monetary policy from June onward?
GDP overestimated in Q1. Negative growth likely in Q2. Services sector slumps. Massive blow to employment in May. Consumer confidence at an all-time low. Rise in producer prices (+7.7%). Opportunities in real estate. Be cautious with stocks.
Key points
- The ONS is likely overestimating growth in Q1 2026
- Negative growth (-0.2%) expected for Q2
- Alarming drop in the services PMI
- Massive shock to the labor market in May (-100k)
- Household confidence hits lowest level in 36 months
- Sharp rise in producer prices (+7.7%) in April
- Will monetary policy turn restrictive again starting in June?
- Bond yields stabilizing at high levels
- British pound supported by interest rates
- Direct real estate less attractive than discounted REITs
- British stocks still consolidating
