06
Jul
A surprising start to the Kevin Warsh era
Economic downturn in Q2. Stagflation remains the base case. Growing concerns about the services sector. Consumers are worried. Negative surprises on the jobs front. Fed on hold. Strong demand for the dollar. Attractive bond yields.
Key points
- Economic resilience will fade in Q2
- The stagflation anticipated for Q2 is materializing
- The trend in services PMIs is a cause for concern
- The job market is weakening and returning to a downward trend
- The Fed in a new era by Kevin Warsh
- Inflation stabilizes at high levels over the summer
- Increased volatility and rising bond yields
- Investors’ sustained enthusiasm for the dollar
- The surprising paradox of the stock market
