27
Jun
US economy has been disappointing, but growth should accelerate
Economic forecasts adjusted. Modest inflation. Long-term rates recovery. The Fed is sticking to its plan. Consumers remain confident. The S&P 500 is too highly dependent on GAFAs.
Key points
- Lower GDP growth (+1.4%) in Q1
- 2nd quarter should be better (+3.1%)
- Negative economic surprises
- Leading indicators are sowing doubt
- The labour market is tense
- Donald Trump is doing nothing for the economy
- Inflation temporarily dropped below the Fed’s +2% target
- Inflationary forecasts: +2.6%
- Rise in long rates in the near future?
- Normalisation of US monetary policy will be cautious
- Beware, the S&P 500 is running out of steam
- Record 2.4 billion Euro fine for Google
- Change in perception regarding GAFAs
- Sector rotation underway
- Higher risk of correction in the 3rd quarter
