04
Oct
Trade tensions weighing on European GDP
Slowdown in growth. Ambiguous leading indicators. End of quantitative easing. Paradigm shift with regard to long-term rates. Attractive European equity risk premium.
Weekly Analysis
Key points
- Slower GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%), +2.1% yoy
- GDP growth hampered by decline in foreign trade
- Trade surplus down 45% in July
- Leading indicators losing momentum
- German economy is resilient, but risks are rising
- Trump is the main cause of uncertainty
- Confidence put to the test
- Euro remains stable
- ECB remains confident but postpones rate hike
- Quantitative easing to end on 1 January 2019
- Pressure expected on long-term rates
- Why are European equities underperforming US shares?
- 25% Eurozone equity risk premium
