Weekly analysis

19 Dec

The Eurozone economy is gaining power and asserting itself

Eurozone growth is stepping up. The Euro has stabilised temporarily. A rise in long-term rates is on the cards for 2018. European assets will outperform in 2018. Key points The ECB seems particularly optimistic and is sticking to its monetary policy Growth forecasts have increased to +2.3% (2018) Inflation will remain modest in 2018 (+1.4%) [...]
14 Dec

The UK to pay 50 billion, but the hardest part has yet to come

Brexit negotiations resuming. GDP holding up (+0.4%). The BOE to keep rates unchanged for a time. Inevitable increase in long-term rates. Lethargic equities market. Key points GDP up +0.4%, or +1.5% yoy Finally, sufficient progress to move on to the second phase of the negotiations Is the UK giving up? The hardest is yet to [...]
08 Dec

The Nikkei hit 23,000, time to take profits

The Japanese economy still has momentum. Exports are still the main driver of growth. Consumer spending remains tentative. The Nikkei may already be reflecting earnings growth. Key points GDP rose a further +0.6% in Q4 (+2.5% yoy) Longest economic expansion phase in Japan since the mid-90s Exports continue to drive growth, rising +14.1% yoy GDP [...]
05 Dec

Swiss GDP expected to accelerate to +1.8%

Manufacturing sector boom. Exports and consumption likely to recover. The Swiss franc will continue to be weak. More than 25 billion in profit for the SNB in 2017. Key points GDP rose +0.6% in the 3rd quarter, and +1.2% yoy Strong prospects for the last quarter GDP growth for 2017 estimated at +1.5% Favourable forecasts [...]
30 Nov

Bitcoin: flash crash and bursting bubble in 2018?

Bitcoin will not become a currency. Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies. Blockchain technology. Stricter regulatory framework. Bubble to burst in 2018? Key points Bitcoin is not and will not become a legal currency in its current form Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies - overview of current views Stricter regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies Central [...]
29 Nov

Bitcoin: lack of an objective value is fuelling speculation

Crises and uncertainty benefit Bitcoin. Supply is designed to be increasingly scarce. Bitcoin is not a currency but an asset. The third speculative bubble is growing. Will it burst in 2018? Key points Black Friday and Cyber Monday have pushed Bitcoin to 10,000 USD 300,000 new users on the Coinbase platform just before Thanksgiving weekend [...]
09 Nov

Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism ?

Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for 61% [...]
30 Oct

ETFs and passive funds: the hidden risks of index investing

Passive investment management is much more active than it may seem. The role of index tracking in the creation of speculative bubbles. When index tracking leads to maximum risk-taking. Key points 1,200 index-tracking and actively managed ETFs listed on the Swiss stock exchange Growth in number of index-tracking ETFs: a reaction to concentrated strategies and [...]
27 Oct

The dollar will continue to rise in the coming months

The dollar is rising again. The euro benefits from stronger fundamentals. Further stabilisation of the pound. The yen will be back between 115 and 120 in the upcoming months. Key points The US dollar will benefit from significant improvement in the economic outlook and the yield spread Speculative positions also point to a rise of [...]
12 Oct

Positive prospects for international real estate prices

Real estate markets buoyed up by the increased pace of economic growth. Rent and prices rise. Rates remain a positive factor. The Eurozone and Asia overperform. Key points International real estate grows +1.6% in 1st quarter and +10.8% over nine months Interest rate rises have no negative effect Historically low real terms interest rates Listed [...]