Weekly analysis

01 Oct

The EU rejects the Chequers plan… no deal or new vote?

Higher GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%). Unexpected upswing in inflation. Pound hostage to the political situation. Steepening yield curve. No Brexit solution. Points clés Theresa May further weakened by the EU’s rejection of the Chequers plan The option of a new referendum is making headway as a means of breaking the deadlock A majority of [...]
26 Sep

The Japanese economy rallies, GDP jumps up +3% in Q2

Highest rate of GDP growth since 2016. Expected depreciation of the yen is the determining factor. Leading indicators still uncertain. Rising inflation. Nikkei achieves 24,000 target. Key points Unexpected and welcome surge in Japanese GDP (+0.7%) after a weak Q1 (-0.2%) Highest annualised rate of GDP growth since 2016 (+3%) Pace of growth to remain [...]
17 Sep

Switzerland posts strong economic gains: GDP up +3% in 2018.

GDP up +3.4% in Q2. Inflation at 10-year high. Steepening yield curve. Temporarily strong Swiss franc. Bullish trend in Swiss equities. Key points Exceptional and unexpected economic upturn in Switzerland in Q2 GDP growth exceeds +3% in 2018 Strong momentum in Q2: +0.7% Switzerland not immune to the risks of a trade war between Beijing [...]
02 Jul

The European economy is holding its course despite uncertainty

GDP is expected to recover. Inflation hits 2% target. The Euro is weakening. Nothing to report from the ECB until 2019. Long rate rise held hostage. 25% “discount” on European equities. Key points Euro Summit in June rings hollow Compromise on the migratory crises Brexit negotiations flounder The migrant crisis eclipses Eurozone reform The EU [...]
18 Jun

The Fed will not derail a booming economy

Acceleration in GDP growth in Q2 to +3.4%. Revision of outlook for GDP and inflation. Contraction in margins, profits and multiples. Remain cautious on the S&P 500. Key points US Federal Reserve unsurprisingly raises key rates by +0.25% Seventh hike since 2015 The Fed’s latest message is clear, monetary policy will not derail a booming [...]
14 Jun

Brexit talks and British economy at a standstill

Impossible political agenda. No more hard Brexit? Sluggish GDP growth (+0.1%). Pound in wait-and-see mode. Long-term rate adjustment postponed. Caution with regard to equities. Points clés Brexit talks: more than ever, confusion abounds The European Union rejects London’s proposals A victory for pro-European MPs that eliminates the risk of a no-deal outcome? Impossible political agenda [...]
08 Jun

GDP growth in Japan declines in Q1 for the first time since 2015

Risks of a technical recession in Q2. Depreciation of the yen still insufficient. Lacklustre leading indicators. Positive output gap. Nikkei rise depends on the yen factor. Key Points Previously mentioned risks of an economic slowdown materialised in Q1 (-0.2%) Growth declines by -0.6% yoy Long sequence of quarterly increases in GDP comes to an end [...]
06 Jun

Swiss GDP grows +2.2% but the equity market is wavering

Sustained economic growth. 10-year high on inflation. Long rates look set to recover. Renewed weakness for the Swiss franc. Swiss equities are depressed but wavering. Key Points The +0.6% rise in GDP in the 1st quarter confirms the trend from the end of 2017 A buoyant 2018 for the Swiss economy GDP growth could exceed [...]
29 May

Hedge funds : Which outlook for 2018 after floundering for 10 years?

Alternative investments have not delivered on their promise since the 2008 crisis. Today more than ever, caution is advised. BBGI Alternative+ : A different approach to alternative investments. Key Points Alternative investments are not the magic bullet investors were expecting in terms of performance and asset de-correlation Unsatisfactory performance still manifest in 2018 However, disappointing [...]
04 May

Volatility in financial markets offers new opportunities

Bullish recovery for US equities. Use the opportunity to reposition in emerging markets. Probable loss of « momentum » for European equities. Buy Switzerland. Key Points The correction in equity markets offers new opportunities The recent phase of underperformance of the American market should not last Bullish recovery for US equities Positive outlook, but risks [...]