Weekly analysis

15 Dec

Fears of a yield curve inversion in the US are unfounded

Yield curve inversion still synonymous with recession? Flattening versus inversion. Current situation and outlook. The Fed is not dogmatic. Unfounded fears. Key points Markets spooked in December by the risk of a yield curve inversion Risk-off mode prevails everywhere What yield curve inversion are we talking about exactly? Yield curve flattening rather than inverting? Is [...]
10 Dec

Sharp slowdown in Japan: GDP drops by -0.6% in Q3

Sharpest contraction of GDP since 2014. Economic rally in Q4. Stabilisation of the yen. Leading indicators weighed down by uncertainty. Inflation reaches +1.4%. Nikkei on the upswing. Key points Unexpected growth shock in Q3; Japanese GDP dropped by -0.6%, or -2.5% yoy Exports pick up in Q4 Trade balance turned negative Imports jumped by +19.9% [...]
05 Dec

Swiss GDP weakens in the wake of German decline

GDP contracts by -0.2% in Q3. Swiss growth remains dependent on German economy. Normal yield curve. Stabilisation of the franc. Positive outlook on equities. Points clés Euphoria gives way to bewilderment Downward revision of the growth outlook for Swiss GDP Surprise collapse of economic momentum in Q3 Swiss economy impacted by trade tensions between Beijing [...]
27 Nov

No impact of stock market volatility on foreign exchange markets

Dollar temporarily at an advantage. Euro expected to rise. Depreciation of the franc. Upswing in emerging currencies. Pound still hostage to Brexit. Weak yen. Key points The increase in stock market volatility did not significantly impact foreign exchange markets Limited rise of the trade-weighted dollar The increasing pace of growth is temporarily lending strength to [...]
21 Nov

Interest rate markets are benefitting from rising uncertainty

Temporary easing in international bond markets. Correlations remain high among major markets. Inflation still moderate. Avoid the Eurozone and the high yield segment. Key points Interest rate markets broadly benefitting from uncertainty in October US market offers very attractive opportunities Long-term interest rates likely to tighten in the Eurozone Adjustment of long-term rates in the [...]
04 Oct

Trade tensions weighing on European GDP

Slowdown in growth. Ambiguous leading indicators. End of quantitative easing. Paradigm shift with regard to long-term rates. Attractive European equity risk premium. Weekly Analysis Key points Slower GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%), +2.1% yoy GDP growth hampered by decline in foreign trade Trade surplus down 45% in July Leading indicators losing momentum German economy is [...]
03 Oct

US economy is doing well. Beware the adverse effects of tariffs.

Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2. Inevitable deceleration in 2019. Risk centred on tariffs. Long-term rate increase. Keep an eye on profits. Caution with regard to the S&P 500. Key points Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2 Eighth rate hike by the Fed, moving towards the 3.1% fed funds target for 2019 Fed [...]
01 Oct

The EU rejects the Chequers plan… no deal or new vote?

Higher GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%). Unexpected upswing in inflation. Pound hostage to the political situation. Steepening yield curve. No Brexit solution. Points clés Theresa May further weakened by the EU’s rejection of the Chequers plan The option of a new referendum is making headway as a means of breaking the deadlock A majority of [...]
26 Sep

The Japanese economy rallies, GDP jumps up +3% in Q2

Highest rate of GDP growth since 2016. Expected depreciation of the yen is the determining factor. Leading indicators still uncertain. Rising inflation. Nikkei achieves 24,000 target. Key points Unexpected and welcome surge in Japanese GDP (+0.7%) after a weak Q1 (-0.2%) Highest annualised rate of GDP growth since 2016 (+3%) Pace of growth to remain [...]
17 Sep

Switzerland posts strong economic gains: GDP up +3% in 2018.

GDP up +3.4% in Q2. Inflation at 10-year high. Steepening yield curve. Temporarily strong Swiss franc. Bullish trend in Swiss equities. Key points Exceptional and unexpected economic upturn in Switzerland in Q2 GDP growth exceeds +3% in 2018 Strong momentum in Q2: +0.7% Switzerland not immune to the risks of a trade war between Beijing [...]