Weekly analysis

08 Jun

GDP growth in Japan declines in Q1 for the first time since 2015

Risks of a technical recession in Q2. Depreciation of the yen still insufficient. Lacklustre leading indicators. Positive output gap. Nikkei rise depends on the yen factor. Key Points Previously mentioned risks of an economic slowdown materialised in Q1 (-0.2%) Growth declines by -0.6% yoy Long sequence of quarterly increases in GDP comes to an end [...]
06 Jun

Swiss GDP grows +2.2% but the equity market is wavering

Sustained economic growth. 10-year high on inflation. Long rates look set to recover. Renewed weakness for the Swiss franc. Swiss equities are depressed but wavering. Key Points The +0.6% rise in GDP in the 1st quarter confirms the trend from the end of 2017 A buoyant 2018 for the Swiss economy GDP growth could exceed [...]
29 May

Hedge funds : Which outlook for 2018 after floundering for 10 years?

Alternative investments have not delivered on their promise since the 2008 crisis. Today more than ever, caution is advised. BBGI Alternative+ : A different approach to alternative investments. Key Points Alternative investments are not the magic bullet investors were expecting in terms of performance and asset de-correlation Unsatisfactory performance still manifest in 2018 However, disappointing [...]
04 May

Volatility in financial markets offers new opportunities

Bullish recovery for US equities. Use the opportunity to reposition in emerging markets. Probable loss of « momentum » for European equities. Buy Switzerland. Key Points The correction in equity markets offers new opportunities The recent phase of underperformance of the American market should not last Bullish recovery for US equities Positive outlook, but risks [...]
02 May

New opportunities on real estate markets in the Eurozone

Expected recovery in real estate in April. Rates are not yet a real threat. Favorable risk premium. The Eurozone outperforms. Return of interest for the US. Points clés Sharp rebound in real estate after a temporary correction of the indices International growth favorable to real estate Rising interest rates may soon be threatening in some [...]
30 Apr

Bonds markets still relatively unaffected by US interest rates at 3%

Higher expected inflation in the USA. Warning on the interest rate markets. The European cycle is still hesitating. Confederation yields finally settle above zero. Key points US Treasury long rates above 3% Gradual rise in expected inflation Reversal of the long-term rate cycle in the euro area British long-term rate at 2% Still no prospect [...]
03 Apr

The temporary fall in industrial metals is an opportunity

The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on [...]
26 Mar

New opportunities for Eurozone equities

Sustained growth in the Eurozone. Insufficient inflation. Risks of a strong Euro. Rise in long rates. Opportunities for Eurozone equities. Low PE and high yield. Key points The end of quantitative easing heralds upcoming key rate normalisation The ECB will wait until inflation heads above 2% before changing its interest rates The risks of a [...]
22 Mar

The Fed raises its rates and announces tighter policy for 2019

Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500. Points clés The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019 Key rates at 2.875% in 2019 Is US growth already slowing? GDP forecast to [...]
19 Mar

Twelve-month countdown for an agreement on Brexit terms

GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities. Points clés Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5% Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context Forestalling failure in 12 months Cost [...]