30
Apr
The publication of US GDP for the 1st quarter is imminent, while the consensus forecasters are steadily lowering their estimates to just +0.3% annualized. The shock could be [...] The Federal Reserve won't be able to remain indifferent for long Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss any [...]
23
Apr
In our Flash of January 22nd, 2025, we warned that expectations seemed extreme for the dollar, whose trade-weighted index (108) we expected to slide over the next few months. Today, our expectations have [...] After a -10% fall, the time for a rebound is certainly approaching Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To [...]
17
Apr
China has announced economic incentives in recent months in an attempt to boost domestic demand, while the trade war with the USA rages on. China had prepared for this by [...] Chinese exports to the United States account for only 3% of GDP Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you [...]
08
Apr
The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and ends free trade. An absurd new paradigm, reminiscent of the origins of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The worst may not be certain, but America will have a hard time regaining credibility. Key points The Trump administration declares trade war on the world and [...]
08
Apr
On February 24, the “Warning Sign” flash on Wall Street suggested adopting a cautious strategy by lowering exposure to equities in favor of fixed-income investments. Today, five weeks later, the Nasdaq [...] Trump prepares to negotiate tariffs country by country Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss any [...]
08
Apr
Economic momentum halted. Trump and DOGE break confidence. Complicated dilemma for the Fed. 15% tariffs and +1.5% inflation. Fixed-income markets benefit from recession risks. Dollar and equities under pressure. Key points U.S. economy slows down since Trump Growth halted in the first half of 2025 Leading indicators point to a slowdown DOGE's action affects jobs [...]
02
Apr
Crude oil prices remained broadly unchanged in the 1st quarter, despite wide fluctuations during the period. Between geopolitical risks, economic scenarios shifting from growth to recession, a potential increase in OPEC+ supply and a further tightening of sanctions against [...] Very attractive earnings growth and relative valuations Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more [...]
01
Apr
Germany creates a new situation. Economic recovery in H2. PMI up. Inflation under control. ECB accommodating. Outlook moderate outlook for bonds. Positive backdrop for the euro, real estate and equities Key points Eurozone momentum weakens again Q1 2025 will remain weak before the next upturn Leading indicators are already strengthening Household confidence set to improve [...]
28
Mar
Fragile economic climate. Persistent uncertainty. Risk of stagflation. Inflation not yet under control. BoE will have to cut rates. High risk premium for bonds. Securitized real estate on hold. FTSE 100 target achieved. Key points Economic weakness continues into 2025 Uncertainty does not support the British economy Leading indicators confirm GDP stagnation Labour market still [...]
26
Mar
With only a week to go until April 2nd, Liberation Day, when Trump's tariff policy will be detailed, uncertainty remains very high, even if it seems that financial markets are tempted to “bet” on further White House backtracking, as suggested by [...] But the risk of recession is rising dangerously Discover our Investment Flash down [...]
