03
Jan
Resilient domestic demand. Potentially stronger Q4. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation stabilizing near +2%. ECB cuts 100 bps by 2025. Difficult situation for the euro. Opportunities in financial markets. Key points Economy holds up thanks to domestic demand Q4 may prove stronger than expected Leading indicators strengthen without conviction Household confidence remains hesitant Inflation stabilizes [...]
18
Dec
As we had expected, on December 12, the SNB cut its key interest rates by 50 bps to 0.5%, surprising most economists by its magnitude. In our view, the SNB needed to surprise the consensus with (...) The SNB creates the conditions for further weakening of the franc Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
17
Dec
Moderate economic growth in 2025. Inflation almost under control. Accommodating monetary policy. Sharp downward adjustment in long-term interest rates. Positive outlook for bonds, listed real estate and equities. Key points Sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 A still relatively weak end to the year Further declines in manufacturing and services PMIs Slight easing of tensions in the [...]
12
Dec
China announces a stronger stimulus plan in 2025 to counter the potential effects of increased tariffs by the US administration. China is preparing to fight back against increased US trade sanctions by adopting a much more flexible monetary policy. The Politburo has pledged to , (...) Positive prospects for Chinese assets and commodities Discover our [...]
04
Dec
Just 30 days ago, when the outcome of the US presidential election was announced, we pointed out the extreme level of anticipation that had pushed 10-year US Treasury yields to 4.5%, stressing that this rise seemed to us largely unjustified by economic fundamentals. Today, (...) US Treasury rate decline spread to other capital markets Discover [...]
02
Dec
Economic momentum still weak. Slightly better end to the year. Consumption resilient. More restrictive monetary policy. Yen stabilizes at around 145 against the USD. Avoid bonds. Reduced outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Economic momentum remains weak in Japan Last quarter of 2024 probably a little better Leading indicators remain uncertain Consumption resilient but cautious [...]
27
Nov
Swiss equities have been under similar influences to those driving European stocks down over the past few months, sliding by almost -7% since their year-to-date peak in early September, and finally gaining just +5.85% (SPI) since the start of the year. They still (...) Favourable outlook again amid potential weakening of the Swiss franc Discover [...]
21
Nov
Weak Q4 GDP growth. Leading indicators still uncertain. Surprise rebound in exports. Inflation target at 0.3%. Key rates at 0.25% in 2025. Limited weakness of the Swiss franc. Positive outlook for Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP slows down and only grows by +0.2% A likely very weak fourth quarter Swiss exports rebound in October [...]
20
Nov
After the recent correction of almost -10% in gold prices and -15% in silver prices, we feel it is worth taking another look at the outlook for precious metals. As we have frequently mentioned, the driving force behind gold's structural rise is solid demand from central banks and the BRICS countries. In our view, the [...]
13
Nov
Swiss inflation recorded its 2nd consecutive month of contraction in October (-0.1%), following a drop of -0.3% in September. It now stands at +0.6% year-on-year, its lowest level since July 2021, while the core CPI index falls to +0.8%. The trend in consumer prices surprised economists, who were expecting (...) The battle to weaken the [...]
