15
Mar
A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The UK has finally entered recession The start of 2024 could already be more positive Slight improvement [...]
13
Mar
Since 2022, the spectacular rise in inflation has prompted changes in monetary policy and interest rate hikes in most countries. In Switzerland, as inflation (CPI YOY) jumped from 1.5% to 3.5%, between December 2021 and August 2022 the Confederation's ten-year yields underwent an adjustment from -0.68% to (...) Inflation and interest rate differentials finally in [...]
06
Mar
Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI. Key points Swiss economy surprisingly resilient Swiss exports penalized by strong franc Leading indicators remain uninspiring Swiss inflation is now close to +1% SNB may lower rates [...]
06
Mar
The price of the yellow metal has soared to new heights in recent days, after stabilizing for a long time at levels close to its previous peaks of 2020, 2022 and 2023, slightly below $2,100 per ounce. In 2023, gold prices failed to resist profit-taking on the approach to all-time highs, while (...) Gold resumes [...]
01
Mar
Japan is in recession. Another difficult start to 2024. Inflation finally falls. No solution for the Japanese currency. Monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Nikkei attacks the all-time record set in 1989. Key points Q4 GDP confirms our forecast of a moderate recession in Japan at the end of 2023 Outlook for Q1 2024 remains [...]
28
Feb
The Japanese market has soared in recent months on the back of rising profits for exporting companies, helped by the massive fall in the yen. But the rise has also been driven by an increase in technology stocks and companies linked to semiconductor production, as well as sectors (...) Nikkei rally likely to face profit [...]
21
Feb
For the past fifteen months, silver prices have evolved without any real trend around a central value of $22 per ounce, with little volatility. While gold has advanced from $1800 to over $2100 an ounce (+17%) over the same period, silver has slipped slightly (-4%) from $24 to $23. As a result, the silver/gold price [...]
14
Feb
Inflation in Switzerland surprised observers with a much more moderate rise (+0.2%) than expected in January (+0.6%). Year-on-year, consumer prices rose by just +1.3%, well below the +1.7% expected by economists. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, showed an even more satisfactory trend, registering a (...) Pivotal point for the Swiss franc and positive outlook [...]
07
Feb
The US currency, as expressed by its trade-weighted index, ended 2023 with a very slightly negative overall performance (-2.11%), following two years of average growth of around +7%. It starts 2024 with a slight rise of +1.92%, which statistically is not a decisive factor in anticipating (...) Yield spreads and statistics in favor of an [...]
01
Feb
With the week shaping up to be one of the most intense periods of corporate earnings announcements in the US, along with those of the technology blue chips, the S&P 500 index continues to soar, surpassing the 4,900-point threshold. By the end of January, the bullish recovery begun in November will have recorded its third [...]
