25
Jan
Foundations of central bank creation. The concept of decision-making independence. Roles, missions and objectives. Appointments linked to political power. Who are the shareholders? Who benefits from financial results? Real independence? Key points Who owns the central banks whose monetary policies guide our economies? Reminder of the foundations of central bank creation and the concept of [...]
24
Jan
The Chinese authorities now look set to restore investor confidence in the equity market, putting an end to a 55% rout that will have cost investors more than $6,000 billion since the market top reached in January 2018 (33,484). China's bear market, now in its sixth year, has pushed Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index back [...]
17
Jan
Inflation in Switzerland has already reached the SNB's target for six months, while most other central bankers still need to steer its decline to approach their 2% target. Since June 2023, the Swiss CPI index has indeed slipped below the critical threshold of 2%, reaching its lowest point since the pandemic at 1.4% by the [...]
11
Jan
The preferred soft landing scenario for early 2024 will also support the continued normalization of inflation towards the Fed's target. The current inversion of yield curves in the USA is exclusively due to the high level of key rates and, consequently, of the short end of the yield curves. Against this backdrop, a 100 bp [...]
28
Dec
Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation will reach the +2% target in Q2 2024. The Fed will have to cut rates. Continued readjustment of yield curves. The dollar under pressure. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Significant slowdown after an exceptional 3rd quarter Declining momentum raises fears of recession Leading indicators do not point to [...]
22
Dec
Entry into recession in Q4. Inflation declines faster than expected. New paradigm for ECB policy and euro bond yields. Favourable environment for securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP finally slips into negative territory in Q3 Technical recession expected in Q4 2023 Leading indicators point to a fall in activity Confidence indices stabilize [...]
20
Dec
The evolution of the global macroeconomic scenario, suggesting a weakening of growth prospects for 2024, has already had a fairly significant negative impact on crude oil prices in recent weeks. However, the relatively orderly decline in crude oil prices from almost $95 a barrel at the end of September to just $68 in mid-December, due [...]
15
Dec
Recession postponed until 2024. Household confidence improves. Inflation finally falling significantly. Prudence and pragmatism from the BoE. Rates normalize. Rebound in securitized real estate and equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Recession postponed until early 2024 Timid recovery in leading indicators Significant downturns in the labor market Household confidence improves Inflation finally [...]
13
Dec
The increasingly visible cyclical slowdown, along with a more pronounced easing of inflation, now raises hopes for a somewhat different trajectory than envisaged just a few months ago for interest rates. In October, the ten-year rates of the UK government once again reached the (...) More favorable evolution supported by a clearer easing of inflation [...]
08
Dec
Economic slowdown in Q4. Inflation close to zero. Easing in Q2 2024. Historical yield differentials unfavourable to the franc. Bond yields below 1%. Sharp rise in corporate profits in 2024. Key points Q3 better, but questionable Slowdown expected in Q4 Fragile resilience in household consumption Leading indicators still uninspiring Further decline in foreign trade No [...]
