27
Jan
A market close to imbalance this winter. Reduction in Russian production. New American sanctions change the situation. Oil prices higher than expected. Positive outlook for prices and the global oil sector. Key points World oil market: oversupply? Oil demand underestimated for 2025 The oil market may already be out of balance this winter Russian production [...]
27
Jan
After declining by -4.8% in Q3, the dollar index rose by +9.1% on January 14, 2025, just over three months later. Anticipation of Trump's presidential victory was one of the main factors behind this rise, which was largely fuelled by (...) Momentum likely to be lost after Trump's inauguration Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
27
Jan
The analyst consensus forecasts a crude oil supply that will be significantly in excess of world demand in 2025. For our part, we believe that analysts are underestimating crude demand and overestimating supply. The reduction in inventories in 2024 points to (...) Positive backdrop for oil prices and oil stocks Discover our Investment Flash down [...]
27
Jan
The last quarter of 2024 was marked by the US elections and by major changes in the perception of political and economic risks that extended beyond the US alone. Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 triggered (...) Risks of imported inflation, rate increases, threats to growth, return of uncertainty to start [...]
09
Jan
While the recent small rebound in inflation and solid growth in Q3 may have been partial factors in adjusting balanced rate levels, it seems to us that it was fears of the inflationary effects of Trump's program, difficulties in (...) Towards a new downward movement in the yield curve Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
07
Jan
Declining confidence threatens the economy. Inflationary excessive fears. Fed too cautious again. End of QT imminent. Opportunities in bond markets. Equities continue to rise. Dollar still in demand. Key points US economy still solid in Q4? Where is the US economy heading in the short run? Leading indicators remain hesitant The job market shows no [...]
03
Jan
Resilient domestic demand. Potentially stronger Q4. Leading indicators still uncertain. Inflation stabilizing near +2%. ECB cuts 100 bps by 2025. Difficult situation for the euro. Opportunities in financial markets. Key points Economy holds up thanks to domestic demand Q4 may prove stronger than expected Leading indicators strengthen without conviction Household confidence remains hesitant Inflation stabilizes [...]
18
Dec
As we had expected, on December 12, the SNB cut its key interest rates by 50 bps to 0.5%, surprising most economists by its magnitude. In our view, the SNB needed to surprise the consensus with (...) The SNB creates the conditions for further weakening of the franc Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
17
Dec
Moderate economic growth in 2025. Inflation almost under control. Accommodating monetary policy. Sharp downward adjustment in long-term interest rates. Positive outlook for bonds, listed real estate and equities. Key points Sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q3 A still relatively weak end to the year Further declines in manufacturing and services PMIs Slight easing of tensions in the [...]
12
Dec
China announces a stronger stimulus plan in 2025 to counter the potential effects of increased tariffs by the US administration. China is preparing to fight back against increased US trade sanctions by adopting a much more flexible monetary policy. The Politburo has pledged to , (...) Positive prospects for Chinese assets and commodities Discover our [...]
