27
Sep
The Fed decided not to touch its key rates on 09/20, and in our view this marks the start of a long phase of stability which will soon be seen as the end of one of the most rapid and severe monetary tightening cycles in recent history. Between what the Fed Chairman can't say, what [...]
26
Sep
Recession likely in 2nd half. Leading indicators fall. Household confidence erodes. Inflation finally falls. End of rate hike cycle. Real estate consolidates. Attractive valuation of equities. Key points Resurgence of risks to the British economy Recession in the 2nd half Further worrying declines in leading indicators Significant downturns in the job market Household confidence and [...]
22
Sep
Risks of recession loom large. Inflation falling too slowly. Key rates towards 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities. Key points Eurozone economy avoids recession with +0.1% growth in Q2 Further stagnation in quarterly GDP in Q3 and Q4 Leading indicators point to recession Confidence [...]
20
Sep
Securitized real estate in Europe is still suffering from the effects of inflation, the ECB's restrictive monetary policy and interest rate pressures over the past two years. Listed real estate stocks are still trading close to their two-year lows, down almost -45% from the peak of the (...) Yet falling inflation suggests lower yields Discover [...]
14
Sep
Surprising export-led GDP growth. Inflation still in decline. Reduced trade deficit. Expansive monetary policy. Yen's decline falters. Attractive profits for Nikkei companies. Key points Japanese economy surprises with +1.2% growth in Q2 and positive outlook once again Positive trend for the 2nd half Leading indicators still very uncertain Fall in real household income External account [...]
13
Sep
The Swiss equity market remained highly indecisive over the summer, penalized in particular by the strength of the Swiss franc against the dollar and the euro in July, and a still restrictive monetary policy. The macroeconomic data and statistics published, although very favorable on the inflation front (1.6%/year) and below the (...) Outlook supported by [...]
12
Sep
GDP growth slowed. Inflation stabilizes below 2%. End of key rate hike cycle imminent. Potential weakness of the Swiss franc. Stabilization of yields. Bullish recovery for equities. Key points Swiss economy slows sharply in Q2, with seasonally adjusted real GDP stagnating Private consumption and service exports on the rise Leading indicators still not very encouraging [...]
06
Sep
Crude oil prices have risen by almost 30% since their March 2023 low and are now trading at their highest level of the year, at $85.5 for WTI and $88.5 for Brent. They have finally reacted positively (...) Rising crude oil prices and oil stocks set to continue Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
01
Sep
Gradual reduction in uncertainty. Positive impact of falling inflation and the end of the rate-tightening cycle. Attractive valuations of listed real estate indices in Europe and the UK. Relative yields and agios also attractive in Switzerland. Key points Risks discounted, current prices represent real investment opportunities A particularly favorable price/net asset ratio for European real [...]
31
Aug
China's central bank (PBoC) may well be on the verge of changing its strategy and adopting a more aggressive monetary policy to support a Chinese economy that is performing less well than expected. The expected growth of +5.1% for 2023 seems (...) The PBOC will support GDP with further cuts in the RRR and MLF [...]
