Weekly analysis


02 Aug

The euro bond market has not bottomed out

Eurozone GDP rose by +0.3% in Q2, putting an end to two quarterly sequences of stagnation, while core inflation no longer slipped, stabilizing at +5.5% in July. This modest return to growth, in an environment that is still too inflationary, should not (...) Growth and inflation will push rates even higher Discover our Investment Flash [...]
26 Jul

Opportunities in securitized real estate

The fall in listed real estate values has now reached levels which, in our view, already largely reflect the risks associated with a possible increase in debt refinancing difficulties for lots of real estate companies. For many of them, current price levels (...) High discounts compared to intrinsic values Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
19 Jul

Major overhaul of NASDAQ weightings

U.S. equities benefited above all from the renewed interest in the Nasdaq's blue-chip stocks, and the recent enthusiasm for Artificial Intelligence. While the FANG+ index jumped by +81%, the S&P500 recorded a much (...) Overweight securities other than FANG+ Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss any of [...]
12 Jul

Positiv earnings surprises for S&P500 companies

In recent months, equity markets have shown excellent resilience despite the tighter interest rate environment in May and June, and the Fed's recent standstill. The S&P500 index continued its upward trend up +10% since the start of the year. Our expectations of a bullish recovery in the equity markets supported by (...) Extended participation in [...]
07 Jul

Flattening of the USD yield curve

Moderate economic slowdown. CPI at 3% in sight. Labour market eases. End of monetary tightening cycle. Sharpest drop in short-term rates. Dollar declines. Broader participation of equities in the upside. Key points US economic momentum remains solid Moderate slowdown in Q2 (+1.2%) Leading indicators point to a slowdown Significant easing in the job market The [...]
05 Jul

OPEP wants a more expensive barrel

Since its announcement at the beginning of April, aimed at countering the speculative downward spiral in oil prices, OPEC+ countries have indeed reduced their production. But the reduction was only around 0.2 mb/d, significantly less than expected, and was offset by the rise in US shale oil production. Saudi Arabia's announcement today that it will [...]
29 Jun

Favor real estate and equities over european bonds

Limited recession in 2023. Inflation surprises the ECB. End of restrictive cycle closer to 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities. Key points The European economy is still at a standstill The 2nd quarter is likely to remain very weak Leading indicators show further declines [...]
28 Jun

Yield curve reversal in favor of swiss assets

On June 22nd, the SNB raised its key interest rates by 0.25%, a lower increment than previously, indicating in our view that it now considers Swiss inflation to be close to its target. Although Chairman Jordan stressed that (...) Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more [...]
23 Jun

Significant discount for UK equities

Reduced risk of recession. Wages support purchasing power. Inflation declining too slowly. Relaunch of rate hike cycle. Capital and real estate markets in disarray. Favorable valuations for equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Difficult 2nd quarter ahead Further worrying declines in leading indicators Nominal wages continue to rise Household confidence strengthens gradually [...]
21 Jun

New entry point for Chinese equities ?

China's growth initially surprised observers in Q1, but economic surprises in Q2 seem to have called into question expectations of an acceleration in economic momentum. Weaker-than-expected growth in M2 money supply (+11.6%), industrial production (+3.6% YTD), retail sales (+9.3% YTD) (...) The PBoC cuts several major interest rates Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]