11
Mar
Exports support GDP. Q1 2025 probably solid. Positive momentum in services. Further rate hike in March. Potential appreciation of yen to 140 against USD. Increasing risks for the Nikkei. Ten-year yield at 1.5%. Key points Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid Leading indicators supported by [...]
05
Mar
During the last three US recessions (2001, 2008 and 2020), yield curves normalized each time, with short rates falling twice as fast as long rates. This followed episodes of [...] Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is a fresh warning Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss any of our publications [...]
04
Mar
Weak Q1 GDP growth. Services PMI still solid. Near-deflationary situation on a monthly basis for the past six months. Zero key rates in 2025? Bond opportunities to be avoided. Positive outlook for small caps. Key points Swiss growth slows despite resilient household consumption Q1 GDP growth limited to +0.2% Swiss exports slide at the start [...]
24
Feb
After one month as president, Donald Trump has seen his popularity rating fall to a level never before reached by an elected president. This decline is largely due to his aggressive and unapologetic policy of stunning his political and economic opponents with extreme (...) Reducing risk in the face of increasing uncertainty Discover our Investment [...]
19
Feb
From a relative point of view, small and mid-cap stocks in Europe and the United States have performed less brilliantly than large-cap stocks in recent quarters. Since the start of 2024, Europe's 50 largest stocks (SX5E) have gained +26.5% in euros in almost 14 months, while (...) New opportunities outside the blue chips Discover our [...]
11
Feb
The domestic context of low interest rates, inflation under control, a declining exchange rate at last, and expected earnings growth of +19%, is generally favorable to a rise in Swiss small caps in 2025. They will benefit from this environment to a greater extent than in 2024, not least because of the change in sentiment [...]
06
Feb
Whether or not there will be a tariff war in 2025 is undoubtedly premature, but we are rapidly moving towards a first round of tough confrontation. We'll have to wait and see whether (...) Tariff hikes threaten GDP more than CPI Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss [...]
27
Jan
Chinese equities have been under pressure for several months due to fears and threats to Chinese exports from a massive tariff hike forcefully announced by D. Trump. The Shenzen index slipped a (...) Chinese government and D. Trump offer new perspectives Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss [...]
27
Jan
A market close to imbalance this winter. Reduction in Russian production. New American sanctions change the situation. Oil prices higher than expected. Positive outlook for prices and the global oil sector. Key points World oil market: oversupply? Oil demand underestimated for 2025 The oil market may already be out of balance this winter Russian production [...]
27
Jan
After declining by -4.8% in Q3, the dollar index rose by +9.1% on January 14, 2025, just over three months later. Anticipation of Trump's presidential victory was one of the main factors behind this rise, which was largely fuelled by (...) Momentum likely to be lost after Trump's inauguration Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
