07
Jul
Moderate economic slowdown. CPI at 3% in sight. Labour market eases. End of monetary tightening cycle. Sharpest drop in short-term rates. Dollar declines. Broader participation of equities in the upside. Key points US economic momentum remains solid Moderate slowdown in Q2 (+1.2%) Leading indicators point to a slowdown Significant easing in the job market The [...]
05
Jul
Since its announcement at the beginning of April, aimed at countering the speculative downward spiral in oil prices, OPEC+ countries have indeed reduced their production. But the reduction was only around 0.2 mb/d, significantly less than expected, and was offset by the rise in US shale oil production. Saudi Arabia's announcement today that it will [...]
29
Jun
Limited recession in 2023. Inflation surprises the ECB. End of restrictive cycle closer to 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities. Key points The European economy is still at a standstill The 2nd quarter is likely to remain very weak Leading indicators show further declines [...]
28
Jun
On June 22nd, the SNB raised its key interest rates by 0.25%, a lower increment than previously, indicating in our view that it now considers Swiss inflation to be close to its target. Although Chairman Jordan stressed that (...) Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more [...]
23
Jun
Reduced risk of recession. Wages support purchasing power. Inflation declining too slowly. Relaunch of rate hike cycle. Capital and real estate markets in disarray. Favorable valuations for equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Difficult 2nd quarter ahead Further worrying declines in leading indicators Nominal wages continue to rise Household confidence strengthens gradually [...]
21
Jun
China's growth initially surprised observers in Q1, but economic surprises in Q2 seem to have called into question expectations of an acceleration in economic momentum. Weaker-than-expected growth in M2 money supply (+11.6%), industrial production (+3.6% YTD), retail sales (+9.3% YTD) (...) The PBoC cuts several major interest rates Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
16
Jun
0.7% acceleration in Japanese GDP. Household confidence remains hesitant. Trade deficit down 66%. Inflation falls to +3.2%. Expansive monetary policy. Nikkei at 33-year high. Key points Japanese economy recovers strongly in Q1, growing more strongly than expected (+0.7%) Slower growth in Q2 Slightly more encouraging leading indicators Slight improvement in consumer confidence Trade deficit decreases [...]
15
Jun
After outperforming the S&P500 (+18.4%) and the Nasdaq (+47.5%) in 2020, alternative energies (+142.1%) underwent a period of consolidation and logical underperformance in 2021 (-19.8%), before holding up rather well (-4.5%) against the general collapse of equities in 2022 (S&P500 -18.3%). The rebound of the S&P500 (+12.8%) or the Nasdaq (+33.3%) in 2023 has so [...]
14
Jun
Good economic growth in Q1 (+0.5%). Inflation (+1.9%) in sharp decline and already below SNB target. End of rate hike cycle in sight. Opportunities in bond markets. Bullish revival for equities. Key points Swiss economy surprises on the upside with +0.5% GDP growth in Q1 Domestic demand and exports underpin GDP Leading indicators still very [...]
07
Jun
After outperforming the S&P500 in 2020 and matching the Nasdaq, the Biotechnology sector experienced a long dry spell in 2021 and 2022. The S&P Biotechnology index's collapse of almost -41% in two years proved bloodier than the Nasdaq's -13.8% fall, and even more so in the face of the S&P500's +5% advance. Too many companies, [...]
