16
May
Over the past few quarters, we have witnessed several changes in economic scenarios, which have greatly increased bond market volatility. After fearing further rate hikes up to October 2023, the last quarter saw the opposite extreme scenario, with optimism betting on (...) A new environment conducive to lenghtening durations Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
08
May
Prior to last week's sharp decline, WTI crude prices were still trading above $86 a barrel, a level similar to that seen prior to October 7, 2023. The heightened geopolitical risks associated with Israel's intervention in the Gaza Strip had not immediately caused major uncertainty in (...) Bullish recovery likely in 2nd half Discover our [...]
01
May
The USD bond market (-2%) will undoubtedly end the month with one of its worst performances since 2022, due to the contrary trend in inflation and the contraction in Fed rate cut expectations. Consensus now expects only a 50bp adjustment to December Fed funds (5.04%), whereas (...) Nominal and real US Treasury yields are attractive [...]
24
Apr
A busy week for the S&P500, with 43% of companies announcing their results, including 4 of the Magnificent 7. On the macroeconomic front, we are also awaiting inflation (PCE), which will also be a guide to the evolution of US monetary policy. The index had taken profits (-5%) in April with the rise in long [...]
17
Apr
At the start of 2024, the industrial metals segment was still largely penalized by a mixed global growth outlook, overestimated recession risks in Europe and insufficient momentum in China. In recent days, perceptions have improved somewhat, thanks in particular to more positive developments in China. The index's recovery of nearly (...) Rising prices driven by [...]
10
Apr
In November 2023, we highlighted the exceptional opportunity offered by the Swiss securitized real estate markets against the backdrop of an expected further fall in inflation in our country, and the strong likelihood of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering its key rates by becoming the first (...) Attractive yields, risk premiums and agios Discover [...]
10
Apr
Crude oil prices could rise by +10% to +15% in 2024. Potential rebound in natural gas prices from $1.5 to $2.5 MMBtu. Target of $32 to $35 per ounce for silver not unrealistic. Promising trend reversal for industrial metals. Key points Further rise in commodity prices in 2024 Crude oil prices could rise by +10% [...]
04
Apr
The latest US inflation figures measured by the PCE (core personal consumption expenditure) indicators seem to reinforce the likelihood of Federal Reserve action in June. February's positive surprise of a core PCE indicator (excluding food & energy) at just +0.3% perhaps paves the way for (...) Still very positive environment for dollar-denominated assets Discover our [...]
03
Apr
Resilient economic momentum. Encouraging leading indicators. Recession risks averted. Inflation close to Fed target. 1st rate cut in May. Positive environment for USD assets. Beware of high PEs. USD winner. Key points US economy maintains good momentum at start of 2024 No recession, but a gradual slowdown Steady improvement in leading indicators Declining tension in [...]
27
Mar
The faster-than-expected fall in inflation in Europe at the end of 2023 quickly had a major impact on investors' expectations of key rates and market rates for 2024. These over-optimistic expectations have (...) Capital gains on lower interest rates in Q2 2024 Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't [...]
