22
Mar
GDP stagnates in early 2024. Stagflation takes hold despite net decline in inflation. Less restrictive monetary policy from June. Long rates may fall by 50 bps. Positive outlook for the euro, securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP stagnates Stagflation sets in early 2024 Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Slight improvement in confidence [...]
20
Mar
When the Chinese authorities acted in January to restore investor confidence in China's equity market, we pointed out that its interventions could well be successful when the stock market rout had already cost investors $6,000 billion since (...) Recovery in exports and industrial production underpins the recovery Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more [...]
15
Mar
A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The UK has finally entered recession The start of 2024 could already be more positive Slight improvement [...]
13
Mar
Since 2022, the spectacular rise in inflation has prompted changes in monetary policy and interest rate hikes in most countries. In Switzerland, as inflation (CPI YOY) jumped from 1.5% to 3.5%, between December 2021 and August 2022 the Confederation's ten-year yields underwent an adjustment from -0.68% to (...) Inflation and interest rate differentials finally in [...]
06
Mar
Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI. Key points Swiss economy surprisingly resilient Swiss exports penalized by strong franc Leading indicators remain uninspiring Swiss inflation is now close to +1% SNB may lower rates [...]
06
Mar
The price of the yellow metal has soared to new heights in recent days, after stabilizing for a long time at levels close to its previous peaks of 2020, 2022 and 2023, slightly below $2,100 per ounce. In 2023, gold prices failed to resist profit-taking on the approach to all-time highs, while (...) Gold resumes [...]
01
Mar
Japan is in recession. Another difficult start to 2024. Inflation finally falls. No solution for the Japanese currency. Monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Nikkei attacks the all-time record set in 1989. Key points Q4 GDP confirms our forecast of a moderate recession in Japan at the end of 2023 Outlook for Q1 2024 remains [...]
28
Feb
The Japanese market has soared in recent months on the back of rising profits for exporting companies, helped by the massive fall in the yen. But the rise has also been driven by an increase in technology stocks and companies linked to semiconductor production, as well as sectors (...) Nikkei rally likely to face profit [...]
21
Feb
For the past fifteen months, silver prices have evolved without any real trend around a central value of $22 per ounce, with little volatility. While gold has advanced from $1800 to over $2100 an ounce (+17%) over the same period, silver has slipped slightly (-4%) from $24 to $23. As a result, the silver/gold price [...]
14
Feb
Inflation in Switzerland surprised observers with a much more moderate rise (+0.2%) than expected in January (+0.6%). Year-on-year, consumer prices rose by just +1.3%, well below the +1.7% expected by economists. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, showed an even more satisfactory trend, registering a (...) Pivotal point for the Swiss franc and positive outlook [...]
